Preview
Wycombe's home record tells a clear story about goals. In 20 home games, the hosts have scored 2.25 per game and conceded 1.45, with both teams finding the net in 15 of those 20 matches. That 75% rate is the single most relevant figure for this fixture, and it is reinforced by Wycombe's recent form: they have scored in all five of their last five matches and in all ten of their last ten, with both teams scoring in nine of those ten. The 18 of 20 home games that went over 2.5 goals underline that this is a venue where the scoring is open.
Notts County's numbers from the other side of the pitch are less dominant but still point toward an open game. Their away record over 20 games shows 1.25 goals scored per game and 1.25 conceded, with both teams scoring in 9 of 20. More recently, Notts County have found the net in three of their last five matches, including a 5-1 EFL Trophy win over Nottingham Forest U21 on 13 October and a 2-1 home victory over Grimsby on 22 September. Over their last ten games, both teams have scored in eight of those matches, and they have not failed to score in a single game in that stretch beyond the two I will mention next.
The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months. The five older fixtures span from 2016 to 2024, and at Wycombe's ground the two sides met twice, with Notts County winning both (2-4 and 0-1). Those results are nine years old and carry no weight for current form. I will not treat them as a trend or an edge.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Notts County have failed to score in two of their last five matches — the 0-2 loss at Reading on 19 September and the 0-1 defeat to Bradford on 12 September. Their away BTTS rate of 9 in 20 is the lowest of any figure in this preview, and it is the main reason I am not more confident in this pick. Wycombe's 1-4 home loss to Luton on 10 October, while not directly involving Notts County, reminds us that the hosts' defence is not impenetrable. Notts County's xG against in their last three games with data was 1.1 per game, but the actual goals conceded in those three was 5, which suggests the numbers can swing.
Key Points:
- Wycombe have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and all 10 of their last 10
- At Wycombe's ground, both teams have scored in 15 of 20 home games
- Notts County have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches
- The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months
- Notts County's away record shows both teams scoring in 9 of 20 games
The evidence leans toward both sides finding the net, and at 1.75 the price reflects a market that agrees. My own reading of the form and venue records puts the chance of both teams scoring above what the market implies. This is not a certainty, but it is the strongest case in this fixture. Both teams to score.
