Wycombe vs Stevenage Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got a cracking League One clash on Saturday lunchtime as Wycombe look to climb the table against a Stevenage side who've been proper dodgy on the road lately.

The lads from Adams Park have been solid as a rock at home. Sixty percent win rate in their last five at their own gaff, and they've only been letting in 0.6 goals per game there – tighter than a drum! They absolutely battered Doncaster 4-0 a couple of weeks back and put two past both Wigan and Wimbledon without reply. Even when they faced the league leaders Cardiff, they held them to a 1-1 draw. That's the sort of form that wins you points.

Now, Stevenage might be sitting pretty in 7th spot, but don't let that fool ya. Their away form is shocking – lost all four of their last road trips, shipping 11 goals in the process! They got hammered 3-0 at Exeter, lost 3-1 at both Northampton and Barnsley, and went down 2-1 at Luton. They're conceding nearly three goals a game away from home recently. That's relegation form, not playoff form, mate.

The head-to-head is tight overall with four wins apiece, but Wycombe have the edge at home with two wins from three against this lot. Stevenage nicked it 1-0 back in August, but that was at their place where they're actually decent. On the road, it's a different story entirely.

The numbers don't lie. Wycombe are averaging 1.8 goals at home while Stevenage are only managing 0.75 away. The goal expectancy has this down as roughly 2.3 to 0.7 in favour of the hosts – that's heavy favouritism.

Key Points:

• Wycombe have won 60% of their last 5 home games and concede just 0.6 goals per game there

• Stevenage have lost 100% of their last 4 away games, conceding 11 goals (3, 3, 3, 2)

• Wycombe kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 overall

• Stevenage have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away trips

• Home win odds of 1.90 look generous given the massive form gap between home and away records

With Stevenage leaking goals for fun on their travels and Wycombe looking handy at home, the 1.90 on a home win is the bet for me. The away side's defensive record is a shambles right now, and I fancy Wycombe to take full advantage and bag the three points.