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Right, folks, gather round. The Big O is here to talk goals, and I've got a fixture that's got me scratching my head. Yunnan Yukun host Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Super League on 17 October, and I'm looking for that beautiful, goal-soaked football I live for. Let's see if the numbers deliver.
Here's the case for the goals. Yunnan Yukun at home are a proper goal machine. Over the last 20 home games, they've gone over 2.5 in 13 of them, and in their latest 10 across all venues, 8 of those 10 have been over. Their home scoring average sits at 2.05 goals per game, and they've only failed to score in 1 of those 20 home fixtures. That's a team that puts the ball in the net, and when they do, the totals follow. Their most recent home game was a 5–0 demolition of Shenyang Urban on 6 September, and before that they were involved in a 3–3 thriller at Beijing Guoan. Four of their last five games have produced three or more goals. That's the kind of environment I want to be in.
Now here's the problem, and I'll be honest with you. Chongqing Tongliang Long away are the opposite of a goal fest. In 20 away games, only 8 have gone over 2.5. In their latest 10, just 2 have been over. In their last five matches, only one – that 1–3 loss to Shanghai Shenhua – crossed the line. Their away scoring average is 0.95 per game, and in their last five they've scored just 0.6 per game. They failed to score in 2 of those 5, and in 7 of their 20 away games they've been blanked entirely. Their last five results read 1–1, 1–3, 0–1, 1–1, 0–1. That's a team that's been playing in the mud, and I'm not talking about the pitch.
The head-to-head doesn't help my cause either. The two recent meetings within the last 12 months were a 1–0 FA Cup win for Yunnan Yukun on 2 September and a 0–0 draw at Chongqing's ground on 20 May. Both under 2.5. The older meetings – a 3–2, a 1–1 and a 0–0 – are historical record and don't really tell me what to expect in 2026, but they do paint a picture of tight, low-scoring affairs between these two.
So here's my honest take. Yunnan Yukun's home record screams goals, but Chongqing Tongliang Long's away form is as dry as a biscuit. The market is pricing over 2.5 at 1.57, implying about 64% chance. My gut says this is closer to a 55% proposition. Yunnan will score – they almost always do at home – but will Chongqing chip in? Their last five away and home games have been a parade of low totals, and the H2H says these two tend to play it tight. I can't get comfortable enough to put money on the over when the away side is scoring at 0.6 per game and the recent meetings have been 1–0 and 0–0. The Big O wants the goals, but the Big O also knows when the numbers don't back him.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun have gone over 2.5 in 13 of their last 20 home games and 8 of their last 10 overall
- Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone over 2.5 in only 8 of their last 20 away games and just 2 of their last 10
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings (1–0 and 0–0) both finished under 2.5
- Chongqing Tongliang Long scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 2 of them
- Yunnan Yukun's home scoring average is 2.05 per game, but Chongqing's away scoring is 0.95
The Big O passes. No Bet on this one – the goal numbers just aren't there to give me the confidence I need on the over.