Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Yunnan Yukun hosting Chongqing Tongliang Long on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a nice flavour to it.
Yunnan Yukun at home are the ones to watch. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, scoring 2.05 per game and conceding just 1.45. That's a solid record, and it tells you the hosts know how to get the job done in front of their own crowd. Add to that the head-to-head: the last time these two met at Yunnan Yukun's ground, on 2 September in the FA Cup, Yunnan Yukun took a 1–0 win. And if you look at Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record over 20 games, it's 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, with just 0.95 goals per game. That's a team that struggles on the road, and it's not a secret.
Now, Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent form is not pretty. In their last five matches, they've managed 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring just 3 goals in total. They drew 1–1 with Shandong Luneng on 11 October, but before that they lost 0–1 to Dalian Zhixing at home and 1–3 to Shanghai Shenhua. Their points per game over that stretch is 0.4, which is... well, let's just say it's not the kind of form that makes you feel warm and cosy. You'd rather be watching this from the sofa with a cold one than being in their boots.
The counter-argument, and I'll be fair about it, is that Yunnan Yukun's most recent outing was a 7–1 defeat away to Shanghai Shenhua on 10 October. That's a bruising one, and it does raise a question about whether the hosts are fully sharp. Also, the head-to-head between these two has been low-scoring — the two recent meetings produced 1–0 and 0–0. So don't expect a goal-fest. The 0–0 at Chongqing's ground in May tells you these two can grind it out.
But here's the thing: that 7–1 loss was on the road. At home, Yunnan Yukun beat Shenyang Urban 5–0 on 6 September and beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 on 2 September. The home record speaks for itself, and Chongqing's away numbers don't give them much hope. My gut says Yunnan Yukun get the win, and I rate that chance at around 64%, which sits comfortably above the market's 58.14% view on the price.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 2.05 goals per game
- Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, 0.95 goals per game
- Head-to-head at Yunnan's ground: Yunnan Yukun won 1–0 on 2 September
- Chongqing's last 5: 0W 2D 3L, 3 goals scored in total
- Yunnan's 7–1 loss to Shanghai Shenhua was away, not at home
I'm going with the Yunnan Yukun home win at 1.72. The numbers at this ground, the head-to-head, and Chongqing's poor away form all point the same way. Boet, this one's a nice one.