Some betting details are unavailable for this preview.
Yunnan Yukun welcome Chongqing Tongliang Long to their ground on 17 October for a Super League encounter that, on the surface, looks like a comfortable home affair. But as always, I'm here to check whether the little guy has a pulse before the big dogs pounce.
The case for Yunnan Yukun is straightforward. At home over the last 20 games, they've won 11 of 20, averaging 1.9 points per game and 2.05 goals per match. Their most recent home result was a 5–0 demolition of Shenyang Urban on 6 September, and before that they edged past Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 in the FA Cup on 2 September. The head-to-head at this venue in recent meetings tells the same story: Yunnan won that 1–0, and the only other meeting between these two sides in the last 12 months was a 0–0 draw at Chongqing's ground back in May.
Chongqing Tongliang Long, though, are not the team they were two years ago. Over their last 20 away games they've won just 7, drawn 5 and lost 8, averaging 1.3 points per game and scoring only 0.95 per match. In their last five matches across all venues they've managed 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring just 3 goals in total. Their most recent outing was a 1–1 draw at home against Shandong Luneng on 11 October, and before that they lost 0–1 to Dalian Zhixing at home on 23 August. They failed to score in two of those five games.
Now, here's where I start to feel a little sympathy for the visitors. Yunnan Yukun's last game was a 1–7 defeat away to Shanghai Shenhua on 10 October, and before that they were thumped 0–6 by Hangzhou Greentown on 29 August. In their latest 10 matches they've conceded 2.6 goals per game, which is a leaky defence by any measure. That 1–7 scoreline and the 0–6 loss suggest a side that can be vulnerable on their bad days, even at home. Chongqing's defensive record away is actually a touch steadier — they've conceded 1.2 per game over 20 away outings, and in their last five they've conceded 1.4 per game.
The head-to-head overall is a fascinating one: across six meetings spanning three years, there have been 4 draws, 1 Yunnan win and 1 Chongqing win. The two most recent meetings produced just one goal between them (1–0) and none at all (0–0). That's a pattern of tight, low-scoring affairs that doesn't immediately suggest a runaway home victory.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun have won 11 of their last 20 home games, averaging 2.05 goals per match at home.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long have won just 7 of their last 20 away games and scored only 0.95 per match on the road.
- Yunnan Yukun's last two results were defeats of 1–7 and 0–6, with 2.6 goals conceded per game over their latest 10.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings produced just one goal and no goals respectively.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0 of their last 5 matches, managing 2 draws and 3 losses.
I've done the numbers, and I have to be honest: the evidence points firmly to Yunnan Yukun at home, and I simply cannot rate Chongqing Tongliang Long's chances of winning above the level the market is already pricing them at. The underdog's story here is one of a team that's struggling to score and struggling to win on the road, facing a home side with a strong record at this ground. Even with Yunnan's recent defensive wobbles, I don't see enough to back the little puppy here. No Bet.