Preview
Value VinnyThe numbers don't need much translating here. Yunnan Yukun have won 11 of their last 20 home games in the Super League, scoring 2.05 per game and keeping their conceded average to 1.45. Chongqing Tongliang Long, by contrast, have won just 7 of their last 20 away games, managing 0.95 goals per game on the road. That's a gap the market at 1.72 for a Yunnan win doesn't fully price in.
Look at Chongqing's last five matches and the picture is grim: no wins, two draws, three losses, and just three goals scored across the lot. They failed to score in two of those five. Their last ten across all venues reads 1W 3D 6L at 0.6 points per game. When you stack that against Yunnan's 5W 2D 3L over their last ten at 1.7 points per game, the direction of travel is obvious.
The head-to-head at this venue adds another layer. Six weeks ago in the FA Cup, Yunnan Yukun beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 at their own ground. The other recent meeting, five months ago at Chongqing's end, was a 0–0 draw. In the last 12 months, Yunnan have won the home meeting and the reverse was a scoreless draw. The older meetings — a 3–2 Chongqing win in 2024 and two draws in 2023 and 2024 — are historical record and don't carry the same weight as what's happened in the last year.
Now, the counter-argument. Yunnan Yukun are not in perfect form. Seven days ago they were demolished 1–7 away at Shanghai Shenhua, and before that they lost 0–6 to Hangzhou Greentown. Their last ten games show 2.6 goals conceded per game, which is a leaky defence. That 1–7 scoreline is ugly and it's fresh. But context matters: those two heavy defeats were both on the road. At home, Yunnan's record over 20 games tells a very different story — 11 wins, a 2.05 scoring rate, and 7 clean sheets. The 5–0 thrashing of Shenyang Urban at home five weeks ago reminds us what this team can do in front of its own crowd.
Chongqing's away defence is also a concern for them: 1.2 goals conceded per game over 20 away games, and they've failed to score in 7 of those 20. Against a Yunnan side that scores 2.05 at home, that's a tough night for the visitors.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 2.05 goals scored per game
- Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, 0.95 goals scored per game
- Chongqing's last 5 matches: 0W 2D 3L, 3 goals scored, 7 conceded
- Head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months: Yunnan won 1–0 (FA Cup, 6 weeks ago)
- Yunnan's recent away losses (1–7, 0–6) are the main caveat, but the home record is the relevant metric
The market prices Yunnan Yukun's home win at 1.72, implying roughly 58% probability. The football evidence — a strong home record, a struggling away opponent with no wins in five, and a direct head-to-head win at this venue — points to a higher likelihood than the bookmaker has priced. I rate Yunnan Yukun's chance of winning above the market's implied figure, and that's where the value sits. My pick: home win.