Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Yunnan Yukun hosting Chongqing Tongliang Long on 17 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a fairly clear shape to it.
Let's start with the home side. Yunnan Yukun have been a force at their own ground over the last 20 home games — 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, and they're averaging 2.05 goals a game. That's not just a number; it's a team that comes out and wants to score. Their last two home fixtures were a 5-0 thrashing of Shenyang Urban and a 1-0 win over Chongqing Tongliang Long themselves in the FA Cup back in September. Two home wins, two clean sheets in those games, and the second one was against the very team they're facing now.
Now, I'll be fair — Yunnan's last outing was a 1-7 defeat at Shanghai Shenhua, and they also suffered a 0-6 loss to Hangzhou Greentown. Those are ugly results, no doubt. But both were away games, and the pattern at home tells a very different story. Over their last 10 games across all grounds, they've picked up 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 2.3 a game. The home record is where the real edge sits.
On the other side, Chongqing Tongliang Long are in a bit of a scrap. Their last five games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. They've scored just 3 goals in that stretch and conceded 7. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, and they're averaging only 0.95 goals a game on the road. In their last 10 games anywhere, they've managed just 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses. That's a team that's struggling to find a rhythm, let alone one that's going to come to Yunnan's ground and cause real trouble.
The head-to-head here is short but telling. In the last 12 months, these two have met twice. At Yunnan's ground, the Yunnan side won 1-0 in the FA Cup. At Chongqing's ground, it was a 0-0 draw. So the recent meetings at this venue say Yunnan take the points, and the reverse fixture was a stalemate. The older meetings go back to 2023 and 2024, but those are historical — they don't really tell us what's happening now.
The matchup table backs it up. Yunnan at home score 2.05 per game and concede 1.45. Chongqing away score 0.95 and concede 1.2. Yunnan have failed to score in just 1 of their last 20 home games, while Chongqing have failed to score in 7 of their last 20 away. That's a big gap in the attacking department.
The one thing that gives me a small pause is Yunnan's recent defensive fragility — 3.2 goals conceded per game in their last five. If they're leaking goals at home, it could open the door for Chongqing to nick a goal. But Chongqing's away scoring record of 0.95 per game suggests they're not the team to do it. And the head-to-head at this ground has been low-scoring.
So here's where I land. The market has Yunnan winning at 1.72, which prices them at about 58%. I look at the home record, the away record of the visitors, the recent head-to-head, and the scoring numbers, and I'd put Yunnan's chance of taking all three points at around 63%. That's a few points above what the bookies are saying, and that's where the value sits.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun have won 11 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.05 per game
- Chongqing Tongliang Long are winless in their last 5 and average just 0.95 goals per away game
- The recent head-to-head at Yunnan's ground ended 1-0 to the hosts
- Chongqing have failed to score in 7 of their last 20 away games
- Yunnan's recent away losses (1-7, 0-6) are a concern, but the home pattern is very different
My pick: Yunnan Yukun home win.