Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe force is strong with Yunnan Yukun at home. That is a fact written in twenty games, eleven of which ended in victory, five in a draw, and only four in defeat. Their home record speaks with a voice that cannot be ignored: 2.05 goals per game, 1.45 conceded, and a clean sheet in seven of those twenty fixtures. The old one saw a 5–0 over Shenyang Urban on 6 September, and a 1–0 over Chongqing Tongliang Long on 2 September in the FA Cup. The home ground, it seems, is where the Yunnan tree takes root.
Now, the other side of the ledger. Chongqing Tongliang Long on the road: seven wins, five draws, eight losses in twenty away games. Their scoring is a whisper — 0.95 goals per game — and in seven of those twenty trips, they failed to score at all. In their last five matches, the tally is 0W 2D 3L, with just three goals found and seven conceded. The 1–1 draw with Shandong Luneng on 11 October was a small reprieve, but the pattern is clear. The away journey is a long road for Chongqing to walk.
The head-to-head at this venue tells a simple story. One meeting within the last twelve months, and Yunnan Yukun won 1–0 on 2 September. The older meetings at this ground — a 1–1 and a 0–0 — are historical record, not current form, and I will not dress them up as a trend. What matters is the recent meeting, and it was a Yunnan win.
But the wise one must also see the shadow. Yunnan Yukun's last two away games were brutal: a 1–7 defeat to Shanghai Shenhua on 10 October and a 0–6 loss to Hangzhou Greentown on 29 August. In their last ten matches, they have conceded 2.6 goals per game. The defence, when tested on the road, has shown cracks. Yet those were away fixtures. At home, the record holds firm. The tree bends in the wind but does not break.
The counter-argument, then, is this: can Yunnan's home solidity survive when their recent defensive record is so leaky? Chongqing, even in poor form, has kept clean sheets in 6 of 20 away games and failed to score in only 7 of 20. A 1–0 or 2–1 scoreline is entirely within the realm of possibility, and the 0–0 draw at Chongqing's ground in May showed these two can cancel each other out.
Yet the weight of evidence — the home record, the away record, the recent head-to-head, the scoring disparity — tilts firmly toward the hosts. The market prices Yunnan's win at 1.72, implying a 58.14% chance. My reading of the football puts the hosts' likelihood closer to 63%. The numbers on the ground agree with the numbers on the page.
Key Points:
- Yunnan Yukun's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 2.05 goals per game
- Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, 0.95 goals per game, 7/20 failed to score
- Head-to-head at Yunnan's ground: Yunnan won 1–0 on 2 September (FA Cup)
- Chongqing's last 5: 0W 2D 3L, 3 scored, 7 conceded
- Yunnan's recent away losses (1–7, 0–6) raise a defensive question, but the home record remains solid
The force is with the home side. I recommend the home win for Yunnan Yukun.