Zamalek SC vs Al Ittihad Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a bit of Friday night football from the land of the Pharaohs? We’ve got what looks like a proper mismatch on paper as league leaders Zamalek SC host struggling Al Ittihad, but don’t go chucking your money about just yet – there’s a bit of recent history here that might give the savvy punter pause for thought.

Zamalek are sitting pretty at the summit of the Egyptian Premier League with 40 points from 18 games, boasting a cracking 12 wins and a healthy goal difference of +19. They’ve been in absolutely red-hot form lately, winning eight of their last ten matches. Just last weekend they went away to title rivals Pyramids FC – who are second in the table mind you – and came away with a massive 1-0 victory. That’s the mark of champions, that is. They followed that up with a 2-1 win at Masr and before that beat Haras El Hodood 2-0 at home. At their own patch, they’re even more formidable with an 80% win rate, banging in 1.6 goals a game while keeping it tighter than a drum at the back with just 0.6 conceded per match.

Now, Al Ittihad are languishing down in 14th spot with only 20 points from 19 games, and their away record is proper dodgy – just a 20% win rate on the road and struggling to find the net with only 0.6 goals per game away from home. They’ve managed five wins in their last ten outings, including a 2-0 home win against Ghazl El Mehalla last time out and a 1-0 away victory at El Geish, but most of their success has come against the league’s lesser lights. When they’ve stepped up in class, they’ve come unstuck – losing 1-0 away at Petrojet and getting hammered 3-1 at Ceramica Cleopatra.

Here’s the rub though – these two met in the League Cup on New Year’s Day, and Ittihad absolutely battered Zamalek 3-0! I know, I couldn’t believe it either when I saw the scoreline. That’s their only win in the last nine meetings between these sides, with Zamalek winning six of the other eight including a 2-0 victory when they last met in the league, but it shows Ittihad can turn up when they fancy it.

Still, league form is league form, and Zamalek’s domestic dominance is hard to ignore. They’ve beaten the likes of Smouha 1-0 and Petrojet 2-0 at home recently, and their record against Ittihad on this ground is strong with three wins and a draw in their last four here.

The bookies have Zamalek at 1.75 to win, which looks decent value to me given they should be winning this type of fixture around two times out of three. Yes, that cup defeat stings a bit and might put some punters off, but over a 90-minute league match with the title race hotting up, the quality gap should tell. Ittihad’s away day blues and Zamalek’s charge for the championship point to a home win.

Key Points:

• Zamalek lead the table with 40 points and have won 8 of their last 10 games including a 1-0 victory at second-placed Pyramids FC

• Al Ittihad sit 14th with a poor away record (20% win rate, 0.6 goals per game) and have lost 11 of their 19 league matches

• Ittihad beat Zamalek 3-0 in the League Cup on January 1st – their only win in the last 9 meetings between these sides

• Zamalek’s home defence is rock solid, conceding just 0.6 goals per game with an 80% win rate at home

• Home win odds of 1.75 offer value given the gulf in league positions and Zamalek’s superior quality

Summary:

Despite that shock cup defeat earlier this year, Zamalek’s league form is too strong to ignore. They’re flying high at the top, just beat their nearest rivals, while Ittihad can’t buy a win on the road. I’m backing the leaders to get back to winning ways at 1.75.