Zulte Waregem vs Cercle Brugge Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Belgian bash-up between Zulte Waregem and Cercle Brugge. On paper, this looks like a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions, and I reckon the home side might just have enough to get the job done.

Zulte Waregem are sitting pretty in 7th spot with 20 points, and they've been decent enough at home lately. They've won 75% of their last 4 home games, banging in 2.25 goals per match at their own patch. They've had some proper decent results too - remember that 4-1 thumping of Gent and the 2-0 win over Antwerp? That's the sort of form that makes you sit up and take notice. Even though they got turned over 1-4 by league leaders Union St. Gilloise, you can't really hold that against them too much.

Cercle Brugge, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it down in 15th place. Just 12 points from 15 games tells its own story, and their away form is absolutely shocking - they haven't won any of their last 3 away matches, losing two-thirds of them. They're only managing 0.67 goals per game on their travels, which is hardly going to scare anyone, is it? Recent results like 0-2 at Union and 1-2 at home to OH Leuven show they're really struggling.

Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head record actually favors Cercle Brugge (4 wins to 2), and Zulte have only won once at home against them in 4 attempts. And let's not forget that 8 out of the last 9 meetings have seen both teams score. But form is temporary, class is permanent, and right now Zulte's home form is miles better than Cercle's away form.

The goal expectancy has Zulte scoring nearly 2 goals while Cercle might barely manage 1. When you factor in that Zulte are averaging 2.25 goals at home and Cercle are struggling to hit the back of the net away from home, it starts to paint a pretty clear picture.

At 2.50 for the home win, I think there's a bit of value here. The bookies have it at 40% implied probability, but based on current form and the massive gulf between how these teams are playing at home vs away, I'd say Zulte's chances are closer to 55%.