Standard Liege Value Too Good to Ignore at Waregem

Sunday evening in the Jupiler Pro League sees Zulte Waregem host Standard Liege, and if you're looking for a bit of value down the pub, pull up a stool because the bookies might have got this one wrong. Zulte Waregem are having a nightmare, plain and simple. Eight losses in their last ten games tells you everything you need to know about their current mood. They've been leaking goals like a sieve at the back – 22 shipped in those ten matches including a proper pasting in that 2-4 defeat to Anderlecht and a 4-3 thriller against Club Brugge where they showed they can score but couldn't defend a lead if their lives depended on it. Their only wins in this rotten run came against basement boys Dender (1-0) and a Genk side who were perhaps having an off day (2-1). Even at home, where they've won 50% of their last four, that only accounts for two victories against the same Dender side and that Genk result. It's thin gruel. Now cast your eyes over to Standard Liege. They're sitting pretty in 8th, six points clear of Zulte, and their recent form is on the up. The standout result? That cracking 3-0 away win at Genk – and this wasn't against a Genk team in the doldrums, this was a side flying high with 2.20 points per game. Standard have won 60% of their last five away trips, which is better than Zulte's home record! They've also kept things tighter at the back, conceding just 1.50 per game compared to Zulte's 2.20. The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. Standard have the edge with three wins to Zulte's two, and while the last meeting ended 0-0 back in November, six of the last eight between these two have gone over 2.5 goals. Zulte's matches recently have been absolute goal-fests – averaging 3.6 goals per game – so we're unlikely to be watching paint dry here. But here's the kicker: the bookies have Zulte as favourites at 2.00, with Standard priced at a juicy 3.60. That implies Standard only have a 28% chance of winning, which is bonkers given the form book. The goal expectancies have Standard at 1.45 and Zulte at 1.32 – barely any difference – yet the odds suggest a massive gulf. Sometimes the market gets hypnotised by home advantage, but Zulte's home form is built on sand (just four games) and Standard are road warriors right now. **Key Points:** • Zulte have lost 8 of their last 10 matches, conceding 22 goals in the process • Standard have won 60% of their last 5 away games, including a dominant 3-0 win at Genk • Standard sit 6 points above Zulte in the table with a superior goal difference • Head-to-head history shows 75% of matches go Over 2.5 goals • Standard Liege are overpriced at 3.60 given current form and away strength **Summary:** Zulte's defensive frailties and terrible recent run make them a risky bet at skinny odds. Standard Liege are in better nick, travel well, and at 3.60 represent cracking value for a team that's beaten better sides than this away from home recently. Get on the away win before the bookies wake up.