Autumn Nations Series 2026 Betting Guide: Fixtures, Odds and Best Bets

The autumn Tests used to be glorious one-offs. A full house, a southern-hemisphere giant in town and bragging rights that lasted until the Six Nations. Not this year. The Autumn Nations Series has been folded into the brand-new Nations Championship, so every Test from Friday 6 November carries table points, bonus points and a seeding for a Finals Weekend at Twickenham.

July is in the books and the table is a beauty. South Africa and New Zealand are both perfect at three from three. France lead a northern pool where two points cover the top four, and the hemispheres are locked at nine wins apiece. The opening Test in Dublin is 27 days away, so there's time to get a feel for the markets before the team sheets land.

That's where this Autumn Nations Series 2026 betting guide comes in. July handed us a clear read on margins and points totals, the format rewards anyone who thinks about bonus points, and the outright market has one price we like a lot. Fixtures, standings, prices and our best bets are all below.

Twelve teams, two pools of six. The northern pool is England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales. The southern pool is Argentina, Australia, Fiji, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa.

Each team plays all six sides in the other pool once. The southern teams hosted three rounds in July, with Fiji's "home" games staged in Cardiff, Liverpool and Edinburgh. Now it's the north's turn to host Rounds 4 to 6 in November, which leaves everyone with three home Tests and three away.

Points and bonus points

If you bet on the Six Nations, the scoring will look familiar. A win is worth 4 points and a draw 2. You get a bonus point for scoring four or more tries, and another for losing by fewer than eight points. That caps any match at 5 points, and with the northern pool this tight, every bonus point is going to matter.

Finals Weekend at Twickenham

After Round 6, all twelve teams head to Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, from 27 to 29 November. Each side meets the team that finished in the same position in the other pool. 1st v 1st is the Nations Championship final, 2nd v 2nd decides third place, and so on down to 6th v 6th. There's no promotion or relegation this time round, and a running north v south trophy is settled across the whole competition.

The championship runs every two years, outside Rugby World Cup and British & Irish Lions years. That makes this first edition a proper dress rehearsal for the 2027 World Cup in Australia.

Three rounds gone, three to play before the finals. Here's where the two pools stand.

Standings after Round 3. PD = points difference.

The north is wide open. France, Scotland, England and Ireland all won two of their three, so bonus points are doing the sorting. Scotland picked up three try bonuses, England have the best points difference in the pool, and France snatched a precious losing bonus in a 34-32 defeat to the All Blacks.

The south has a clear top two. South Africa and New Zealand both won all three with a try bonus every time, and only points difference splits them. Will Jordan already has six tries for New Zealand, the most in the competition, while France's Maxime Lucu tops the points chart with 37.

One stat leaps out. Outside South Africa and New Zealand, no southern side beat France, Ireland, England or Scotland in July. Australia, Argentina and Japan saved their wins for Wales and Italy. Keep that in mind when you look at the November mismatches.

Only three of the 18 July Tests were decided by seven points or fewer.

Rugby punters love a tight handicap. The first window of this competition didn't give them many. Across 18 matches the median winning margin was 16 points and the average was 21.3. Six games were won by 20 or more, and just four finished within 12 points: New Zealand 34-32 France, Australia 31-33 Ireland, Argentina 24-31 England and Argentina 38-47 Scotland.

The points flowed as well. The 18 Tests produced 1,109 points, an average of 61.6 per match, with a median of 63.5 and a range of 37 to 85. Seven games went past 65 points and only two stayed under 50. There were 161 tries in all, close to nine a game, and not one draw.

Home advantage cuts both ways

Hosts won 9 of their 15 July Tests, leaving Fiji's relocated home games aside. All six away wins came from the northern big four: Ireland in Australia and against Japan, France in Australia and Japan, Scotland in Argentina and England in Argentina. These teams clearly take travel seriously. Japan's home Test against Ireland was moved to Newcastle, Australia, at Ireland's request to cut down the journey.

Now the boot's on the other foot. The north hosts all 18 November Tests, and the southern sides turn up at the end of a long season. Our guide to home advantage versus team quality is written around football, but the principle carries straight over: home edge is real, yet it rarely beats a big gap in class.

All kick-off times are UK time.

Round 4: 6-8 November

• Fri 6 Nov: Ireland v Argentina, Aviva Stadium, Dublin (20:10)
• Sat 7 Nov: Italy v South Africa, Turin (11:40); Scotland v New Zealand, Murrayfield (14:10); Wales v Japan, Principality Stadium, Cardiff (16:40); France v Fiji, Groupama Stadium, Lyon (20:10)
• Sun 8 Nov: England v Australia, Allianz Stadium, Twickenham (15:10)

Round 5: 13-15 November

• Fri 13 Nov: France v South Africa, Stade de France, Paris (20:10)
• Sat 14 Nov: Italy v Argentina, Genoa (11:40); Wales v New Zealand, Cardiff (14:10); England v Japan, Twickenham (16:40); Ireland v Fiji, Dublin (20:10)
• Sun 15 Nov: Scotland v Australia, Murrayfield (15:10)

Round 6: Saturday 21 November

• Sat 21 Nov: England v New Zealand, Twickenham (14:10); Scotland v Japan, Murrayfield (14:10); Ireland v South Africa, Dublin (16:40); Italy v Fiji, Udine (16:40); Wales v Australia, Cardiff (20:10); France v Argentina, Stade de France (20:10)

Finals Weekend at Twickenham

ITV holds the UK rights, with every game live across ITV channels and ITVX. S4C has Welsh-language commentary on the Wales matches.

South Africa

The world champions look every inch the team to beat. Rassie Erasmus's side won all three July Tests with a bonus point each time: England 45-21, Scotland 42-28 and Wales 43-0. Then they beat New Zealand 3-1 in a four-Test series in the United States.

Their November route is the harder of the two leaders', though. Italy in Turin on a Saturday morning is a gentle start. After that it's France in Paris on Friday 13 November and Ireland in Dublin on 21 November. Win both and the Springboks will take some stopping. Slip up in either and top spot turns into a real fight.

New Zealand

The All Blacks are level on 15 points, but the squad is being stretched thin. Captain Ardie Savea is out for the year with a dislocated shoulder, Ruben Love is out for the rest of the year with an ankle injury, and Richie Mo'unga is a doubt for November with a torn calf. For the Bledisloe Tests, new coach Dave Rennie has moved Damian McKenzie to fly-half and put Beauden Barrett at full-back, with Scott Barrett back after back surgery.

On paper their run is kinder: Scotland at Murrayfield, Wales in Cardiff, then England at Twickenham on 21 November. If the Springboks drop points in Paris or Dublin, that last game could decide the southern pool.

France

The Six Nations champions top the north on 12 points. They won their 20th title in March, a second in a row, beating England 48-46 with Thomas Ramos's penalty on the final kick. July brought a 34-32 loss in Christchurch, then wins of 42-26 in Australia and 42-15 against Japan.

All three November games are at home: Fiji in Lyon, then South Africa and Argentina at the Stade de France. Beat the Springboks and France are in pole position to top the pool and reach the final.

Scotland

Scotland sit second on 11 points, thanks to three try bonuses that include a 47-38 win in Argentina. They put 50 points on France in the Six Nations, and all three November Tests are at Murrayfield. The catch? New Zealand come first, on 7 November.

England

England's year has been a rollercoaster. Their fifth-place Six Nations included Italy's first ever win over them. They bounced back in July, losing 45-21 in South Africa before thrashing Fiji 73-8 and winning 31-24 in Argentina. That +48 points difference is the best in the north. Maro Itoje is back in Steve Borthwick's autumn training squad, while Jamie George, Ollie Chessum, Ellis Genge and Alex Mitchell were all sidelined when it was named. All three games are at Twickenham: Australia, Japan, then New Zealand.

Ireland

The Triple Crown holders are on 10 points after wins over Australia and Japan and a 40-21 defeat at Eden Park. Farrell's side have Argentina, Fiji and South Africa at the Aviva, and that Springbok Test on the final Saturday could shake up both pools in one go.

Wales and Italy have plenty to do. Wales beat Fiji 39-24 for their only win, and Italy are still looking for a first point.

The final pits the two pool winners against each other. So backing a team to win the Nations Championship really means backing them to top their pool and then win one match at Twickenham. Here's how one bookmaker sees it.

Outright winner odds as of 10 October 2026, Paddy Power. Prices will move.

South Africa deserve to be favourites. Evens implies a 50% chance, though, and that's asking you to back them through Paris, Dublin and a final. We think France at 7/2 are the value. They lead their pool, play all three remaining pool games at home and get the Springboks at the Stade de France.

Why each-way makes sense here

Paddy Power's each-way terms are a quarter of the odds for two places. In a competition settled by a single final, finishing second means losing that final. In practice, the place half of the bet pays out if your team reaches the final.

£10 each-way France at 7/2 (£20 total stake), 1/4 odds, 2 places

Win part:    £10 x 4.50                  = £45.00
Place part:  7/2 x 1/4 = 7/8, £10 x 1.875 = £18.75

France win the final:   £63.75 returned (profit £43.75)
France lose the final:  £18.75 returned (loss £1.25)
France miss the final:  nothing returned (loss £20.00)

New to the sport? Our beginner's guide to betting on rugby union covers the basics. Here's how the main markets play out in these Tests.

Match odds

Win, lose or draw. Draws are rare in Test rugby, and there wasn't one in 18 July games. Short-priced favourites in the mismatches don't offer much, which is why most punters end up on the handicap.

Handicap betting

The bookmaker gives the underdog a head start to level things up. A line works like this:

Example line: Home side -14.5, Away side +14.5

Home side win by 15 or more     -> Home -14.5 wins
Home side win by 14 or fewer,
draw or lose                    -> Away +14.5 wins

July's wide margins matter here. When only three of 18 Tests finish within seven points, tight lines rarely come into play. The big lines in games like France v Fiji, Italy v South Africa and England v Japan come down to whether the favourite keeps running in tries late on.

Winning margin

You pick the winner and the band they win by, often 1-12 and 13+ in two-way form, or narrower bands like 1-5, 6-10 and 21+. In July, 14 of the 18 Tests were won by 13 points or more.

Total points

Over/under on combined points. July averaged 61.6 a game, but November rugby in the north usually plays tighter: a wet ball, cold evenings and two Italy kick-offs at 11:40. We'd expect the lines to sit a bit lower, and we wouldn't chase overs when the weather turns.

Try scorers and team tries

Anytime try scorer is rugby's favourite prop. Wingers and back-row forwards are the usual suspects, and Will Jordan's six tries in July and Louis Bielle-Biarrey's nine in the Six Nations show why. Markets on a team scoring four or more tries line up neatly with the bonus point, which the favourites in the mismatches will be chasing hard.

Pool markets

"To top the northern pool" is where this competition gets really interesting. France are one point clear of Scotland and two ahead of England and Ireland, so the market is properly open, and it decides who plays in the final. For a look at how the northern sides shaped up earlier in the year, see our Six Nations 2026 betting guide.

• France each-way is our outright bet. At 7/2 with two places, you're mostly backing them to reach the final from top spot, with three home Tests still to come.
• Friday 13 November is the fixture of the window. France v South Africa in Paris will shape the final more than any other game. A French win blows the outright market wide open.
• Don't rush in on New Zealand at 7/2. They're level on points with the Springboks, but without Savea and Love, and possibly Mo'unga, we'd rather see how they handle Murrayfield first.
• Expect big margins in the mismatches. July paid out on 13+ winning-margin bets again and again. France v Fiji, Italy v South Africa and Ireland v Fiji fit the pattern.
• Scotland to top the north is our long shot. They're second already, have three Murrayfield Tests and make a habit of scoring four tries. Turn over the All Blacks on 7 November and that price will tumble.
• Back home advantage for the north's big four. Australia, Argentina and Japan didn't beat any of them in July, and now they're the ones doing the travelling.

Pick your fixtures, set your stakes before Round 4 and stick to them through four busy weeks of Test rugby.

• Six Nations 2026 betting guide
• Rugby union betting guide for beginners
• Women's Six Nations 2026 betting guide
• Home advantage vs team quality

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