Double Chance Betting Guide: Low-Risk Football Strategy Explained

You've spent an hour on Arsenal v Chelsea and you're convinced the Gunners are the better side. Then the nagging voice starts. What if it's one of those cagey 0-0s? What if Chelsea nick a late equaliser? A straight win bet leaves you with nothing but a long evening.

That's exactly the itch double chance betting scratches. Instead of choosing one of the three possible results, you cover two of them in a single bet, so you only lose if the one result you've left out happens. The trade is simple: you win more often, but each win pays less.

Whether that trade is worth making is the whole game, and it's what this guide is about. We'll walk through how the three options work, the maths behind the prices, the situations where double chance shines and the ones where it quietly drains your bankroll. New to all this? Start with our football betting strategies for beginners and come back.

In the standard 1X2 market you back one of three outcomes: 1 for a home win, X for a draw and 2 for an away win. Double chance lets you combine any two of them in one bet, and it wins if either comes in. Three combinations, three jobs.

1X: home win or draw

You lose only if the away side wins. It's the natural choice for strong home favourites, teams with excellent home records and any game where you want cover against an upset. Picture Arsenal v Crystal Palace at the Emirates: you fancy the Gunners, but a stubborn Palace could easily nick a point. 1X shrugs that off.

X2: draw or away win

The mirror image: you lose only if the home side wins. It suits sturdy underdogs, sides with solid defensive records away from home and teams who draw a lot. Say Brentford are 5.50 to win at Newcastle. X2 at around 2.30 covers both the win and the draw and still pays a proper price. (These are illustrative prices, not current odds.)

12: either team wins

Here the draw is the only result that beats you. It comes into its own when both sides desperately need three points, such as a relegation six-pointer, or in leagues where draws are thin on the ground.

Double chance doesn't remove the losing result. It narrows it to one, and the price shortens to match.

The appeal is easy to see. Cover two of three outcomes and you simply have more winning bets, even if each one pays less. The exact strike rate depends on the prices you take, so there's no magic number, but the effects are real: shorter losing runs, steadier bankroll swings and far fewer of those soul-crushing 1-1 draws that ruin a good read.

It earns its keep in a handful of situations. In an accumulator, swapping a shaky single selection for a double chance leg makes the whole multi more likely to land, though every leg pays a little less. Tricky away trips for favourites are the classic case. So are games where conditions favour a low-scoring slog: rain, wind or a heavy pitch make equalisers likelier, and two cautious sides tend to cancel each other out. Late in the season, when relegation and title pressure make teams more afraid of losing than keen to win, draws pile up.

Then there's plain psychology. Backing a strong home side only to watch a 0-0 grind out is painful, and 1X protects you against exactly that at a price that still pays something.

Bookmakers price double chance by combining the probabilities of the two outcomes, then adding their margin on top. Once you know the recipe, a poor price stands out at a glance.

1. Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds
2. Fair probability = implied probability ÷ sum of all three implied probabilities
3. Fair double chance odds = 1 ÷ (fair probability A + fair probability B)

Step two strips out the bookmaker's margin by scaling the three probabilities back to 100%.

A worked example: Chelsea v Brighton

Take these illustrative 1X2 prices: Chelsea 1.65 (60.6%), the draw 3.80 (26.3%) and Brighton 5.50 (18.2%). They add up to 105.1%, so the market carries a margin of about 5%. Scaled back to 100%, they become Chelsea 57.7%, draw 25.0% and Brighton 17.3%.

For 1X, the fair probability is 57.7% + 25.0% = 82.7%, which gives fair odds of 1 ÷ 0.827 = 1.21. The same method gives 2.36 for X2 and 1.33 for 12. Add a margin of roughly 5% and the betting screen will typically show something like 1.15, 2.25 and 1.27.

The gap between fair and offered odds is the bookmaker's margin, and it matters. Double chance margins can run higher than on the straight 1X2 market, which chips away at long-term value and is why picking your spots beats using it every week. Take that 1X at 1.15 against a fair 1.21: you're paying about 5% for the privilege.

The table below shows how much extra probability you buy at different price levels (illustrative prices).

The probability gain is biggest for underdogs and evenly matched games, which is where double chance has the most to offer. Whether it's good value, though, depends on the price, not just the probability. The question is never whether double chance is safer. It's whether the price pays you fairly for the extra cover.

Start with the league. Draw rates differ from competition to competition and from season to season, and they decide which option is most useful: 1X and X2 tend to shine in draw-heavy leagues, while 12 gets more interesting where draws are scarce. Look at recent data for the current campaign rather than assuming last year's pattern holds. Our guide to the best leagues for betting odds is a handy place to start.

Then go team by team, and judge the current campaign rather than last season's reputation. How many matches has each side gone unbeaten in? What do their home and away splits look like? How often do they draw, how often do they keep clean sheets, and are goalless games a habit? Late goals matter too, because equalisers and winners in the closing minutes can wreck a double chance as easily as a straight bet. Injuries and fixture congestion belong in the picture, and then comes the usual question: does the price reflect the risk?

A double chance win can feel so safe that stakes start to creep up. Resist it. Risk 1-2% of your bankroll per bet, exactly as you would on any other selection. On a £1,000 bankroll that's a £20 stake, which at odds of 1.20 earns just £4 profit. Accept the smaller return rather than raising the stake, because the false comfort of safe bets is how bankrolls get overbet. Our bankroll management guide covers staking in detail.

Building a better acca

Double chance legs are handy in accumulators if you follow a few ground rules. They work best on tricky away fixtures for favourites, on high-uncertainty matches and in weather-affected games. They work worst on heavy favourites, where anything below 1.15 adds almost no price, and when you stack too many: six or more double chance legs gives you short combined odds and a bet that still dies to one bad result. Mix them with straight wins, as in this illustrative five-fold.

Multiply the prices (1.20 × 1.30 × 1.50 × 1.45 × 1.35) and you get 4.58, so £20 returns £91.60 for a £71.60 profit. Four legs have two ways to win, while the straight Chelsea win adds some bite. Weigh each leg on its own merits, and see our football accumulator strategy guide for more on building multis.

Most double chance blunders come from the same place: treating safer as better.

The classic is piling onto heavy favourites. Risk £100 to win £5 at 1.05 and a single upset wipes out the profit from twenty similar bets. Skip those games, or take the straight win at a better price if you really fancy the favourite. Closely related is reaching for it by reflex. Safe isn't the same as valuable, so ask whether the extra probability justifies the shorter odds, because sometimes the straight win offers better expected value. And don't take the first price you see: margins differ between bookmakers, so compare before you bet.

Then there are the stakes. Raising your stake to make up for short odds, say 10% of the bankroll on a 1.10 banker, turns one upset into a crater. The same goes for chasing losses with heavy-favourite double chance bets: it's a psychological safety blanket, still negative expected value, and it speeds up losses instead of repairing them.

A few habits are quieter but just as costly. Backing 1X on every home favourite ignores the matchup, because some home sides struggle at home and some visitors travel superbly. Forgetting 12 means missing the games where both teams have to win. And overloading accumulators with double chance legs leaves you with short combined odds for the same one-bad-result-loses-everything risk.

Live double chance

In-play markets open up options that don't exist before kick-off. Say you fancied 1X pre-match at 1.40 and the game is still goalless at 60 minutes. The in-play 1X might now be about 1.15, because the clock is eating into the other side's chances of winning (illustrative prices). Look for openings when the favourite concedes first and the 1X price drifts out, when a tight game makes X2 attractive, or when the weather turns. Bear in mind that in-play margins are often higher, which cuts into the value.

Hedging with double chance

Hedging means betting against your own position to buy some protection. Suppose you backed Arsenal to win at 2.50 with £50, a £125 return. They lead 1-0 at 70 minutes, their win price has shortened to 1.30 and X2 is 3.80. A £15 hedge on X2 returns £57 if Arsenal drop points.

Total outlay is £65. If Arsenal win, you collect £125 for a £60 profit, against £75 unhedged. If X2 lands, you collect £57 and lose £8 rather than £50. The hedge costs you £15 of profit if Arsenal hold on and cuts the loss if they don't. It doesn't guarantee a profit either way, and every extra bet pays its own margin, so check the prices first.

Making your own double chance

You can mimic a double chance by splitting your stake across two outcomes. With Home 2.50, Draw 3.40 and a bookmaker 1X of 1.45, a £100 stake split about £57.60 on Home and £42.40 on the Draw returns roughly £144 whichever of the two lands, with an away win losing both. The bookmaker's 1X would pay £145, so splitting rarely beats the real thing. It only makes sense if you can find better prices on each outcome at different bookmakers.

Cash out

Imagine £100 on 1X at 1.35, a £135 return if it lands. Your side lead 1-0 at half-time and the cash-out offer is £118, locking in £18 profit against £35 if you hold. Cashing out makes sense when something changes the picture, such as an early underdog goal, a red card for the favourite, the weather turning or a favourite who is leading without playing well. Hold when the performance is dominant, the lead is more than a goal or little time remains.

All prices below are illustrative, there to show the maths rather than quote the market.

Strong home favourite: Manchester City at home to a newly promoted side

Say City are 1.20 with the draw at 7.00 and the visitors at 15.00. The 1X comes out around 1.06, so a £100 stake wins just £6. The home win and the draw between them cover nearly the whole market, so there's almost nothing left to pay you for the risk. If you back City, take the straight win at 1.20 or look elsewhere. Verdict: skip it.

Competitive match: Arsenal v Chelsea

Prices are Arsenal 2.40, draw 3.30, Chelsea 3.00, with 1X at 1.44, X2 at 1.58 and 12 at 1.33. You slightly favour Arsenal but fear a draw. A £50 stake on Arsenal at 2.40 returns £120 for a £70 profit, but it loses on a draw. The same £50 on 1X at 1.44 returns £72 for a £22 profit and wins on either an Arsenal win or a draw.

Which is better comes down to expected value. The straight win has the edge only if you rate an Arsenal win as more than 1.5 times as likely as a draw. Below that, 1X is the better bet. And if your real worry is a Chelsea upset, 1X is the insurance policy.

Away underdog: Everton at Liverpool

Liverpool 1.50, draw 4.20, Everton 6.50, with 1X at 1.12 and X2 at 2.40. A £100 stake on X2 returns £240 for a £140 profit if Everton win or the game is drawn. Derbies are often tight and a point is a realistic result, which is why X2 is the interesting side of this market. Weigh up form and injuries first, then decide whether 2.40 pays you fairly for the risk.

Draw no bet

Both markets offer protection, but they work differently. Double chance pays out as a win if the match is drawn, whereas draw no bet refunds your stake. Because DNB covers less, its price is usually bigger than the equivalent double chance for the same team. That makes double chance the better fit for strong favourites where you want maximum cover, and DNB the sharper tool for slight favourites where you'd rather have a better price.

Asian handicap

An Asian handicap of 0.0 works like draw no bet, with your stake back on a draw. An Asian handicap of +0.5 on a side is the same as double chance on that side: +0.5 on the away team is X2, and +0.5 on the home team is 1X. Compare the two prices, because the handicap line is sometimes a touch better than the bookmaker's double chance. Our Asian handicap betting guide explains how the lines work.

Draw betting

Double chance treats the draw as one of the results it covers. Draw betting strategies focus on picking out the games that will end level. Backing the draw outright pays more but demands sharper analysis, while double chance gives broader cover for the more cautious bettor.

On its own, no. Double chance gives you a higher strike rate, but the bookmaker's margin sits inside the price just as it does in every other market, so the safer-looking bet isn't automatically the better one. Double chance can make your betting smoother, but it won't make you profitable on its own. What turns it into a useful tool is selective use: spotting the games where the probability gain really outweighs the shorter price, staking sensibly and not reaching for it by reflex.

A quick expected value check

The formula is simple.

Expected value = (your probability × decimal odds) − 1

Take a 1X at 1.30, which implies 76.9%. If you rate the true chance at 75%, the expected value is (0.75 × 1.30) − 1 = −0.025, a loss of 2.5% per bet over time. Now take a straight home win at 2.00, which implies 50%, and say you rate it at 52%. That gives (0.52 × 2.00) − 1 = +0.04, a 4% edge.

Same sort of match, opposite verdicts: the safer bet loses money in the long run while the bolder one earns it. That's the lesson to carry away. Before you tap 1X or X2, ask whether the extra probability justifies the shorter price. For more on spotting those edges, read our guide to value betting.

Think of double chance as a seatbelt rather than a steering wheel: it makes the ride smoother but it doesn't choose the destination. Here's how we'd use it.

• Back it where the draw is the danger. A strong home side in a tight game, or derby-day nerves, is where 1X earns its keep.
• Set a price floor around 1.15. Below that you're risking pounds to win pennies, and the straight win usually makes more sense.
• Trust sturdy underdogs with X2. Sides that rarely get beaten but struggle to win are made for it, and the price is often better than you'd expect.
• Keep 12 in your locker. In open, attacking games, or in leagues where draws are rare, it can be the best value of the three.
• Mix, don't stack. One or two double chance legs among straight wins make an accumulator sturdier. Six of them make it dull.
• Shop around. Margins differ from bookmaker to bookmaker, and an Asian handicap of +0.5 can beat the double chance price.

Whatever you back, stake the same 1-2% as you would on any other bet and never raise it because a selection feels safe. No bet is truly safe, and the bookmaker has an edge in every market.

• Bet Builder Guide: How to Use Same Game Parlay Betting
• Minute Betting Markets: When Goals Happen (Advanced Time Analysis)
• Stop Loss Betting Guide: How to Protect Your Bankroll from Losing Streaks
• Lay Betting Strategy: How to Trade on Betfair Like a Professional
• In-Running Trading: How to Trade Football Matches and Lock In Profits

18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or visit BeGambleAware.org.

How does double chance betting work?

You cover two of the three possible results in a football match (home win, draw, away win) with a single bet, and it wins if either comes in. A 1X bet, for example, wins if the home team wins or the match ends in a draw.

What is the difference between double chance and draw no bet?

With double chance you win if the match is drawn. With draw no bet your stake is returned on a draw. Double chance covers more, so it usually pays shorter odds, while draw no bet pays more but only gives your money back if the match is level.

Is double chance betting profitable?

Not on its own. You win more often, but bookmaker margins still cut into expected value. Profit comes from picking the right spots, staking carefully and not using it automatically.

When should I use double chance in accumulators?

It works for tricky away fixtures, high-uncertainty matches, weather-affected games and strong favourites who might draw. Keep the number of double chance legs low, as too many strips out the value.

What are the best leagues for double chance betting?

It depends on the season. Draw-heavy leagues suit 1X and X2, while leagues with fewer draws suit 12. Check recent draw data for the competition before you bet.