Next Premier League Manager to Be Sacked 2026/27: Betting Guide

Nothing sharpens a boardroom's mind like a long international break. The Premier League has just had its first-ever three-week pause in the autumn, and for a handful of managers that has meant 21 days of reading their own headlines with no match to change the story.

The good news for all of them is that they've made it this far. Nobody has lost their job yet this season, so the next-manager-to-leave market is still waiting for its first winner as the league returns with Matchweek 6.

And what a return it is. Manchester United host Tottenham at Old Trafford in a game with the feel of a sack-race final: Michael Carrick against Roberto De Zerbi, the two favourites to be first out of the door, both badly needing three points.

Below we look at where the table stands, who the bookmakers fancy, the managers we think are over- and under-rated, and the angles worth considering before the first domino falls.

Five rounds in, Manchester City have a perfect 15 points and Arsenal sit three behind, though they'll still be smarting from a 3-0 beating at Brighton before the break. The sack race lives at the other end, where the relegation picture makes uncomfortable reading at some very big clubs.

Pos	Club	Manager	W-D-L	GD	Pts
10	Chelsea	Xabi Alonso	2-1-2	-2	7
11	Ipswich Town	Gary O'Neil	2-0-3	-4	6
12	Manchester United	Michael Carrick	1-2-2	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	Oliver Glasner	1-2-2	-1	5
14	Sunderland	Régis Le Bris	1-1-3	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	Pierre Sage	1-1-3	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	Unai Emery	1-1-3	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	Marco Rose	0-3-2	-2	3
18	Coventry City	Frank Lampard	1-0-4	-9	3
19	Fulham	Álvaro Arbeloa	0-2-3	-3	2
20	Tottenham Hotspur	Roberto De Zerbi	0-2-3	-6	2

The bottom half after five matches, heading into the October international break.

Look at the names on that list. Manchester United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Spurs are all in the bottom half, alongside Coventry and a Fulham side still waiting for a first league win. Meanwhile promoted Hull are up in eighth, and Brentford, Leeds, Liverpool and Everton are all unbeaten. Early tables can flatter and deceive, but they also set the mood, and mood is what moves this market.

The market has had a proper shake-up since the opening weeks. Fulham's Álvaro Arbeloa was the early favourite after three straight defeats, but draws with Liverpool and Manchester United bought him some breathing space. The heat has moved to Old Trafford and north London.

Manager	Club	Best price	Decimal	Implied chance
Roberto De Zerbi	Tottenham	9/4	3.25	30.8%
Michael Carrick	Manchester United	5/2	3.50	28.6%
Álvaro Arbeloa	Fulham	5/1	6.00	16.7%
Pierre Sage	Crystal Palace	5/1	6.00	16.7%
Oliver Glasner	Nottingham Forest	10/1	11.00	9.1%
Frank Lampard	Coventry City	12/1	13.00	7.7%
Gary O'Neil	Ipswich Town	12/1	13.00	7.7%
Enzo Maresca	Manchester City	16/1	17.00	5.9%
Régis Le Bris	Sunderland	20/1	21.00	4.8%

Best prices in the next-manager-to-leave market on 6 October 2026.

Two things jump out. First, the top two are almost inseparable, and they play each other first up. We'd expect the loser at Old Trafford to shorten sharply, and a draw probably helps nobody. Second, there's a big gap after the top four. Glasner, Lampard and O'Neil are all double-figure prices, which tells you the market sees this as a four-horse race for now.

The promoted managers have already had their moment in the spotlight, too. Hull's Sergej Jakirović and Ipswich's Gary O'Neil were among the early favourites, but Hull won two and drew two of their first four and Ipswich have two wins on the board, so both have drifted.

Roberto De Zerbi, Tottenham

Spurs spent more than £300 million in the summer, with Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Sávio and Jan Paul van Hecke among the arrivals, and De Zerbi has two points to show for it. The season opened with a 3-0 defeat at Brentford, and the goals only arrived in game five, a 3-2 home defeat by Aston Villa. They're out of the Carabao Cup too, beaten in the third round.

The numbers that will be doing the rounds in the boardroom: Spurs finished 17th in each of the last two seasons, and if they don't win at Old Trafford they'll be without a victory in their first six league games for only the fourth time in the club's history. There's real quality in that squad, and one win could change the mood overnight. But at 9/4, the market is telling you he's the man who most needs it.

Michael Carrick, Manchester United

Carrick took charge in January and was handed the job permanently in the summer, with a contract to 2028. It has been a bumpy start. Five points from five games is United's joint-worst return at this stage since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, level with Louis van Gaal in 2014/15, and the derby went City's way with a 1-0 win at Old Trafford.

The Carabao Cup hurt even more. United led Brighton by two goals at home and still lost, the first time in 50 years they've been beaten after leading by two at Old Trafford. His two wins from seven games in all competitions came against Ipswich and Sabah.

For all that, Carrick has goodwill in the bank, and the van Gaal comparison cuts both ways: van Gaal won his sixth game. Beat Spurs and he's out of the firing line almost instantly.

Álvaro Arbeloa, Fulham

Arbeloa arrived on a three-year deal after a short spell in charge at Real Madrid, and three straight defeats made him the early favourite. Then came a goalless draw at Anfield on 12 September, a draw with Manchester United, and two wins from two in the Carabao Cup, which leaves Fulham in the fourth round with Crystal Palace to come at Craven Cottage.

He's still looking for a first league win, and Ipswich are next up, but the mood around the Cottage has lifted. Of the top four in the betting, he's the one we think is most likely to steady the ship.

Pierre Sage, Crystal Palace

Sage replaced Oliver Glasner in June, and it has been a testing summer, with Maxence Lacroix and Daniel Muñoz both sold. His only league win so far came at Fulham, and Palace are still waiting for a first home league win under him.

The chance to put that right is about as neat as the fixture list could have written it: Palace host Glasner's Nottingham Forest in Matchweek 6. Add Thursday nights in the Europa League and Sage has plenty of games to turn it round, but not much time on the training ground to do it.

The chasing pack

• Oliver Glasner, Nottingham Forest (10/1): a 1-0 home defeat by Coventry stung, and Forest have form for moving quickly. They sacked Nuno Espírito Santo in early September last season, and Vítor Pereira this July. The trip back to Selhurst Park is loaded.
• Frank Lampard, Coventry (12/1): a 5-0 home defeat by Brighton was a rough welcome back to the top flight, but the win at the City Ground on 19 September was Coventry's first of the season. Expectations at a promoted club are different, and we think the market has him about right.
• Gary O'Neil, Ipswich (12/1): two wins and a mid-table spot is a decent start for a promoted side. Hard to see him under real pressure soon.
• Enzo Maresca, Manchester City (16/1): five wins from five and top of the table, right at the heart of the title race. Results give the board no reason to act.

Every sack race has a weekend that changes it, and this could be the one. Three weeks is a long time for supporters to wait, and if fans come away feeling nothing has changed, the reaction can be loud.

• Manchester United v Tottenham. The two favourites, head to head at Old Trafford. Defeat for either plunges them into unwanted territory, and it's the biggest fixture in this market so far this season.
• Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest. Sage chases a first home league win against the man he replaced. Both managers sit in the top five of the betting.
• Fulham and Ipswich. Arbeloa is still hunting a first league win, against a promoted side that has made a fast start.
• Newcastle and Coventry. Lampard's side will want to build on the Forest win, and it's a good test of whether that result was a turning point.
• Liverpool v Manchester City. Not one for the sack race yet, but Andoni Iraola is unbeaten in five and still looking for a first league win at Anfield. A statement result would put the new era on the front foot.

A simple rule of thumb: if you fancy a manager to go, the best price is usually before a defeat, not after it. If you're on the fence, the weekend's results will tell you far more than three weeks of headlines.

Nine Premier League clubs changed manager before a ball was kicked, including Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Newcastle. That's a lot of new men still bedding in.

Club	Out	In
Liverpool	Arne Slot (sacked)	Andoni Iraola
Manchester City	Pep Guardiola (resigned)	Enzo Maresca
Chelsea	Calum McFarlane (interim)	Xabi Alonso
Newcastle	Eddie Howe (resigned)	Matthias Jaissle
Nottingham Forest	Vítor Pereira (sacked)	Oliver Glasner
Crystal Palace	Oliver Glasner (end of contract)	Pierre Sage
Bournemouth	Andoni Iraola (end of contract)	Marco Rose
Fulham	Marco Silva (end of contract)	Álvaro Arbeloa
Ipswich	Kieran McKenna (resigned)	Gary O'Neil

That churn shapes the market in two ways. Clubs rarely pull the plug on a brand-new appointment after a handful of games, which helps the summer arrivals. But boards that have just made a big call can also be quick to admit a mistake once a season starts to slip.

And patience has been in short supply lately. Eleven Premier League managers lost their jobs during 2025/26, and seven the season before. Ruben Amorim left Manchester United and Enzo Maresca left Chelsea within days of each other last January, and Chelsea's replacement, Liam Rosenior, didn't see the season out either. On that recent record, we'd be surprised if 2026/27 turns out to be any quieter.

For what tends to happen after the change, our guide to the new manager bounce digs into the numbers.

Next manager to leave

The headline market. You're backing the Premier League manager you think will be next to depart, and the bet is settled the moment somebody goes. Then a fresh book opens and the whole thing starts again. Prices move hard on results, so timing your bet matters as much as picking the man.

Specials on individual managers

Some bookmakers also price up a named manager to leave before a set date or by the end of the season. These are useful when you have a strong view on one club but no idea who goes first. You don't need your man to win the race, just to be gone by the deadline.

Know how your bet settles

A sacking is straightforward. Resignations, departures by mutual consent and a manager walking out for another job can be treated differently from one bookmaker to the next, so it pays to know your bookie's terms before you stake.

Where the value sits

De Zerbi at 9/4 (3.25) implies roughly a 31% chance that he's next out, and the top four add up to more than 90% between them. The market is clearly expecting the first casualty to come from that group. If you think a dark horse is more likely than the prices suggest, the double-figure names are where you'll get paid for being right. If you agree with the market, the edge is in picking the right one of the four, and the Old Trafford result will do a lot of the work for you.

As ever, a price only offers value if you rate the chance higher than it implies. A long price isn't value just because it's long, and our guide to favourite-longshot bias explains why.

• Old Trafford is the swing game. Carrick and De Zerbi are almost level in the betting and play each other first up. If you fancy one of them to go, the value is before kick-off, not after a defeat.
• De Zerbi is a worthy favourite. Bottom of the table, two points, a big summer spend and back-to-back 17th-placed finishes behind the club. We think 9/4 is fair rather than generous.
• Carrick has more credit than his price suggests. A contract to 2028 and plenty of goodwill. We'd rather take him on than back him at 5/2.
• Sage is our pick of the top four. No home league win yet, two key defenders sold and Europa League Thursdays on top. At 5/1 he's the one we'd lean towards.
• Arbeloa looks short at 5/1. Two league draws and a Carabao Cup run have lifted the mood at Fulham. We'd want to see results turn again before backing him.
• Keep Glasner on your radar. Forest have moved quickly on managers before, and 10/1 is a price that could tumble if the trip to his old club goes badly.
• Swerve the big names at the top of the table. Maresca at 16/1 has won all five, and there's nothing in his results to suggest an early exit.

Sack-race bets can tie money up for weeks, so decide your stake in advance and keep it small.

The league returns with Matchweek 6, headlined by Manchester United v Spurs, Palace v Forest and Liverpool v Manchester City. Palace also have Europa League matchday 2 away at Lyon on Thursday 15 October, the kind of trip that squeezes training time for a manager who badly needs it.

The bigger landmark is the winter window, which opens on 1 January 2027 and closes at 11pm GMT on 1 February, with the final day of the season on 30 May 2027.

The run-up to January is worth watching closely. A board deciding whether to hand its manager transfer money first has to decide whether he's the one who should be spending it. Our guide to manager change betting covers how the odds react once a new man walks through the door.

• Premier League Relegation Betting 2026/27
• Premier League 2026/27 Title Betting Guide
• New Manager Bounce: Do Teams Really Win After Managerial Changes?
• Summer 2026 Transfer Window: The Big Deals, Early Verdicts and Betting Angles

18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support visit BeGambleAware.org.