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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

AC Milan vs AS Roma

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

34'
Neil El Aynaoui🟨
Yellow Card
39'
S. Pavlovicâš½
Normal Goal → R. Leao
51'
M. Soule🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Bailey
52'
N. El Aynaoui🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Pellegrini
74'
Wesley🟨
Yellow Card
75'
Zeki Çelik🟨
Yellow Card
77'
Z. Celik🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Dovbyk
78'
Youssouf Fofana🟨
Yellow Card
83'
Mario Hermoso🟨
Yellow Card
84'
C. Nkunku🔄
Substitution 1 → R. Loftus-Cheek
84'
M. Hermoso🔄
Substitution 4 → K. Tsimikas
84'
P. Dybala🔄
Substitution 5 → T. Baldanzi
88'
A. Saelemaekers🔄
Substitution 2 → Z. Athekame
90+4'
R. Leao🔄
Substitution 3 → F. Tomori
90+5'
Gianluca Mancini🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

8Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal10
17Total Shots20
2Blocked Shots4
13Shots insidebox14
4Shots outsidebox6
12Fouls13
7Corner Kicks8
2Offsides1
37Ball Possession63
1Yellow Cards5
7Goalkeeper Saves6
313Total passes523
259Passes accurate470
83Passes %90
3.32expected_goals2.04
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

The Big "O"Lost

Goal Fest Expected When Milan Hosts Roma

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+21.0%

Get ready for some serious fireworks at the San Siro! When AC Milan and AS Roma collide, we're not just talking about a top-of-the-table clash - we're talking about a goal-scoring extravaganza that's been the norm in this fixture. The head-to-head history reads like a Big O…

Mr CertaintyWon

Milan vs Roma: Defensive Battle Expected

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.67
Model EV
+13.6%

This Serie A clash between fourth-placed AC Milan and second-placed AS Roma presents a fascinating tactical encounter between two in-form teams. Milan enters this match with just one loss in nine league games, boasting an impressive home record with a 66.67% win rate at their…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Battle of Serie A Giants: Milan vs Roma

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
58%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+10.8%

In the grand theater of Serie A, two forces converge. AC Milan, fourth in the standings with 18 points, welcomes AS Roma, who sit second with 21 points. The table tells one story, but the force of form tells another. Milan's recent journey shows balance - six wins, three draws…

Mr SimpleLost

Milan vs Roma: Both Teams to Score?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
58%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+10.8%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this top-of-the-table clash between Milan and Roma! Both sides are flying this season, sitting pretty in the top four, and this could be an absolute cracker. Milan have been solid at home, winning two-thirds of their games at their own…

Value VinnyLost

Milan vs Roma: BTTS Value in Top-Four Clash

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
56%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+7.0%

This Serie A top-four clash pits two in-form sides against each other, with AS Roma sitting second on 21 points and AC Milan fourth on 18 points. Both teams have been scoring consistently, but the betting market may be underestimating the likelihood of both teams finding the…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

AC Milan

6W 3D 1L2.10 pts/game

AS Roma

6W 0D 4L1.80 pts/game

Per game

AC Milan at home vs AS Roma away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+50AS Roma
Venue edge
+53AC Milan
Rating period
Match snapshot
AC Milan versus AS Roma: long term Elo, before the match
AC MilanHomeRatingAS RomaAway
Strength
1,711Overall1,761
1,697Match venue1,644
1,697At home1,719
1,672Away1,644
Attack & defence
1,622Attack1,546
1,624Defence1,715
1,600Home attack1,583
1,618Away attack1,495
1,635Home defence1,685
1,591Away defence1,654
Match profile
1,892Goal environment2,082
1,558Home goals1,863
1,833Away goals1,718
1,504Possession1,516
Specialist ratings
1,491Set-piece attack1,530
1,491Set-piece defence1,529
1,609Close games1,666
1,742Winning margin1,790

Match venue compares AC Milan at home with AS Roma away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

AC MilanAC Milan1:1

Starting XI

16Mike MaignanG
31Strahinja PavlovićD
33Davide BartesaghiM
10Rafael LeãoF
46Matteo GabbiaD
4Samuele RicciM
18Christopher NkunkuF
5Koni De WinterD
14Luka ModrićM
19Youssouf FofanaM
56Alexis SaelemaekersM

AS RomaAS Roma1:1

Starting XI

99Mile SvilarG
22Mario HermosoD
43WesleyM
21Paulo DybalaF
5Evan NdickaD
8Neil El AynaouiM
18Matías SouléF
23Gianluca ManciniD
4Bryan CristanteM
17Manu KonéM
19Zeki ÇelikM