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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

Parma vs Fiorentina

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:0HT 0–0

Match Timeline

20'
Alessandro Circati🟨
Yellow Card
22'
Rolando Mandragora🟨
Yellow Card
46'
M. Viti🔄
Substitution 1 → N. Fortini
48'
O. Sorensen⚽
Normal Goal → M. Pellegrino
63'
R. Mandragora🔄
Substitution 2 → R. Piccoli
67'
A. Benedyczak🔄
Substitution 1 → G. Oristanio
68'
J. Ondrejka🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Estevez
76'
C. Ndour🔄
Substitution 3 → S. Sohm
76'
F. Parisi🔄
Substitution 4 → R. Gosens
81'
A. Bernabe🔄
Substitution 3 → C. Ordonez
86'
Edoardo Corvi🟨
Yellow Card
86'
P. Comuzzo🔄
Substitution 5 → E. Kouadio
90+3'
Marin Pongračić🟨
Yellow Card
90+4'
M. Keita🔄
Substitution 4 → B. Cremaschi
90+4'
M. Pellegrino🔄
Substitution 5 → M. Djuric

Match Statistics

2Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal12
13Total Shots23
3Blocked Shots7
9Shots insidebox14
4Shots outsidebox9
10Fouls15
5Corner Kicks6
0Offsides3
42Ball Possession58
2Yellow Cards2
4Goalkeeper Saves1
325Total passes455
260Passes accurate393
80Passes %86
0.95expected_goals1.23
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

Value VinnyLost

Draw Specialists Collide: Value Lies in Stalemate

The pickDraw

Chance
45%
Odds
3.00
Model EV
+35.0%

Let's cut through the noise. On paper, this is a relegation six-pointer that most would run from. Parma (16th, 14pts) host bottom-placed Fiorentina (20th, 9pts). The instinct might be to look for a winner, but my maths tells a different story. The history books scream one thing…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Parma

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Fiorentina

2W 2D 6L0.80 pts/game

Per game

Parma at home vs Fiorentina away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+45Fiorentina
Venue edge
+63Fiorentina
Rating period
Match snapshot
Parma versus Fiorentina: long term Elo, before the match
ParmaHomeRatingFiorentinaAway
Strength
1,493Overall1,538
1,445Match venue1,508
1,445At home1,624
1,456Away1,508
Attack & defence
1,447Attack1,528
1,550Defence1,536
1,458Home attack1,578
1,447Away attack1,483
1,511Home defence1,568
1,511Away defence1,548
Match profile
1,712Goal environment1,863
1,495Home goals1,697
1,717Away goals1,667
1,479Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,452Set-piece attack1,496
1,453Set-piece defence1,497
1,487Close games1,503
1,492Winning margin1,556

Match venue compares Parma at home with Fiorentina away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

ParmaParma1:1

Starting XI

40E. CorviG
14E. ValeriD
22O. SorensenM
17J. OndrejkaF
5L. ValentiD
16M. KeitaM
9M. PellegrinoF
39A. CircatiD
10A. BernabeM
7A. BenedyczakF
27S. BritschgiD

FiorentinaFiorentina1:1

Starting XI

43D. de GeaG
5M. PongracicD
26M. VitiM
10A. GudmundssonF
15P. ComuzzoD
27C. NdourM
20M. KeanF
2DodoD
44N. FagioliM
8R. MandragoraM
65F. ParisiM