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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time3:1HT 2–0

Match Timeline

26'
J. Bogle⚽
Normal Goal → I. Gruev
30'
N. Okafor⚽
Normal Goal → J. Justin
49'
D. Calvert-Lewin⚽
Normal Goal → I. Gruev
54'
N. Dominguez🔄
Substitution 1 → O. Hutchinson
54'
Igor Jesus🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Lucca
61'
N. Okafor🟨
Yellow Card
62'
I. Sangare🟨
Yellow Card
67'
C. Hudson-Odoi🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Ndoye
67'
M. Gibbs-White🔄
Substitution 3 → R. Yates
76'
Z. Abbott🔄
Substitution 5 → L. Netz
79'
B. Aaronson🔄
Substitution 1 → D. James
82'
N. Okafor🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Longstaff
86'
L. Lucca⚽
Normal Goal → O. Hutchinson
90+6'
J. Bogle🔄
Substitution 3 → S. Bornauw

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal6
3Shots off Goal7
14Total Shots17
6Blocked Shots4
13Shots insidebox10
1Shots outsidebox7
9Fouls12
5Corner Kicks10
1Offsides4
56Ball Possession44
1Yellow Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
469Total passes347
393Passes accurate272
84Passes %78
2.5expected_goals1.2
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

A Draw, Many See. But Goals, There Will Be.

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
62%
Odds
1.87
Model EV
+15.9%

In the great struggle of the Premier League, a battle of equals this is. Sixteenth and seventeenth, separated only by goal difference, Leeds and Nottingham Forest meet. A profound truth, there is, in such matches: often, a mirror they become. Each reflects the other's fears…

Mr SimpleWon

Elland Road Six-Poiter: Goals on the Menu?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.87
Model EV
+12.2%

Right then, let's talk about this Friday night special. Leeds versus Nottingham Forest. It's a proper old-school Premier League scrap, and with both teams locked on 26 points, this is about as big a six-pointer as you'll get in February. Forget the fancy stuff, this is about who…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Leeds

3W 5D 2L1.40 pts/game

Nottingham Forest

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Per game

Leeds at home vs Nottingham Forest away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+52Nottingham Forest
Venue edge
+2Nottingham Forest
Rating period
Match snapshot
Leeds versus Nottingham Forest: long term Elo, before the match
LeedsHomeRatingNottingham ForestAway
Strength
1,520Overall1,572
1,541Match venue1,543
1,541At home1,527
1,429Away1,543
Attack & defence
1,528Attack1,492
1,494Defence1,578
1,519Home attack1,478
1,492Away attack1,507
1,505Home defence1,571
1,468Away defence1,534
Match profile
1,767Goal environment1,623
1,595Home goals1,522
1,672Away goals1,602
1,484Possession1,487
Specialist ratings
1,512Set-piece attack1,516
1,512Set-piece defence1,516
1,500Close games1,542
1,527Winning margin1,584

Match venue compares Leeds at home with Nottingham Forest away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

LeedsLeeds1:1

Starting XI

26Karl DarlowG
5Pascal StruijkD
3Gabriel GudmundssonM
19Noah OkaforF
9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
6Joe RodonD
44Ilia GruevM
11Brenden AaronsonF
24James JustinD
4Ethan AmpaduM
2Jayden BogleM

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest1:1

Starting XI

27Stefan OrtegaG
34Ola AinaD
8Elliot AndersonM
7Callum Hudson-OdoiM
19Igor JesusF
4MoratoD
6Ibrahim SangaréM
10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteM
31Nikola MilenkovićD
16Nicolás DomínguezM
44Zach AbbottD