Leeds vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this Friday night special. Leeds versus Nottingham Forest. It's a proper old-school Premier League scrap, and with both teams locked on 26 points, this is about as big a six-pointer as you'll get in February. Forget the fancy stuff, this is about who blinks first.

Leeds have been the draw specialists lately. Five draws in their last ten, including goalless at Liverpool and sharing the points with Manchester United, Everton, Sunderland, and Brentford. They're tough to beat, no doubt about it. That 4-0 hiding by Arsenal last time out? Forget it – the Gunners are top of the league. Look at the good stuff: a 1-0 win over Fulham and a 4-1 thumping of Crystal Palace at home. They know how to get a result at Elland Road.

Forest, on the other hand, are a team on the up. Their 'trends' are all pointing in the right direction – scoring more, conceding less, picking up more points. Their last three games? An average of over two goals and over two points per match. That's form. They've gone to Brentford and won 2-0, held Arsenal to a 0-0 at home, and nicked three points at West Ham. They've also had a couple of hidings from the likes of Villa and City, but who hasn't?

Now, the history books make for grim reading if you're a Leeds fan. Forest have won four of the last nine meetings, including a 3-1 victory earlier this season. Leeds have only beaten them twice. At Elland Road, it's one win and three draws for the hosts. Forest just seem to like playing against this lot.

So, what's gonna happen? It's tight as a drum. Leeds are at home and hard to break down. Forest are in better nick and have the Indian sign over them. I can't split 'em for the win. The bookies make Leeds slight favourites at 2.30, but my gut says this has a draw written all over it.

But here's where the value is, and it's staring us in the face: goals. Both teams score in 70% of Leeds' games. Forest score 1.60 on average away from home but let in the same amount. Leeds score 1.50 at home. The goal expectancy models reckon both sides will find the net. Leeds' defence isn't watertight (two clean sheets in ten), and Forest's away defence can be got at.

Key Points:

Table Talk: Both teams are level on 26 points and -11 goal difference. A massive game at the bottom.

Leeds' Form: Hard to beat but draw-heavy. Only two losses in ten, but five draws. Solid at home (won two of last four).

Forest's Form: Improving across the board. Good away wins at Brentford and West Ham recently.

Head-to-Head: Forest have the edge, winning four of nine, including a 3-1 win earlier this season.

• Goal Trends: Leeds' games see Both Teams Score 70% of the time. Both teams have similar attacking output (Leeds 1.5 GPG, Forest 1.4 GPG).

The Simple Verdict:

Trying to pick a winner here is a mug's game. It's too close. But the stats scream that both teams will likely score. Leeds' games are full of goals at both ends, and Forest are coming in with confidence. At odds of 1.87, Both Teams to Score - Yes is the smart play for this Friday night thriller.