Right then, it's The Big O here, and let's be honest—life's too short for nil-nil! We're looking at West Ham hosting Everton at the London Stadium on April 25th, 2026. The bookies are offering 1.91 for Over 2.5 Goals, and I'm telling you, this has that sweet spot of value we love. Let's dig into the numbers. West Ham at home is averaging 1.80 goals per game, while Everton away from Goodison Park is averaging 1.60 goals per game. That's a combined expectation of 3.40 goals just from team stats. The Poisson inputs provided in the data set the total goal expectancy at 3.00 (1.70 for West Ham + 1.30 for Everton). When you have a total expectancy of 3.00 goals, the probability of seeing Over 2.5 Goals sits comfortably above the market's implied probability. West Ham's recent form shows 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in their last 10 games. They've kept 5 clean sheets, but they're also conceding 1.20 goals per game on average. Everton is no slouch offensively, averaging 1.50 goals per game in their last 10 matches, and they've conceded 1.30. With both teams showing a tendency to find the net, the path to 3+ goals looks clear. Head-to-Head history is interesting. In the last 10 meetings, West Ham has won 5, Everton 2, with 3 draws. But look at the goals: 12 scored by West Ham, 7 by Everton. That's 1.90 goals per game in H2H, which is actually lower than current form suggests. However, recent form trumps history. West Ham's home attack is firing (1.80 goals/game) and Everton's away attack is solid (1.60 goals/game). The odds of 1.91 imply a 52.36% chance of Over 2.5 Goals. Based on the Goal Expectancy of 3.00, the true probability is closer to 58%. That's a 5.6% edge, which clears our 3% threshold. I'm feeling confident enough to put my money on the goals. Life's too short for nil-nil, so let's go for the Over. Key Points: - West Ham Home Goals: 1.80 per game. - Everton Away Goals: 1.60 per game. - Combined Goal Expectancy: 3.00. - Odds for Over 2.5: 1.91. - Edge: ~5.6%. My pick is Over 2.5 Goals.