Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 17:45
Eredivisie
Netherlands
Netherlands
Full Time
1:2
HT: 0 - 1

Match Timeline

16'
Wout Weghorst🟨
Yellow Card
24'
Ilias Bronkhorst🟨
Yellow Card
37'
N. Naujoks
Normal Goal → R. Meissen
46'
N. Naujoks
Normal Goal
52'
L. Hartjes🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Carlen
57'
Josip Šutalo🟨
Yellow Card
57'
A. Gaaei🔄
Substitution 1 → K. Dolberg
59'
K. Dolberg
Normal Goal → M. Godts
66'
D. Sanches Fernandes🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Mitrovic
66'
J. Bergraaf🔄
Substitution 3 → M. van Duinen
76'
G. Alders🔄
Substitution 2 → O. Wijndal
76'
O. Edvardsen🔄
Substitution 3 → R. Moro
84'
J. Sutalo🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Klaassen
84'
C. Widell🔄
Substitution 4 → L. Schouten
84'
N. Martens🔄
Substitution 5 → S. Janssen

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal3
15Total Shots8
6Blocked Shots1
10Shots insidebox4
5Shots outsidebox4
4Fouls13
9Corner Kicks2
2Offsides0
64Ball Possession36
2Yellow Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves4
625Total passes359
551Passes accurate282
88Passes %79
1.3expected_goals0.43
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

AjaxAjax1:1

Starting XI

22Remko PasveerG
41Gerald AldersD
8Kenneth TaylorM
11Mika GodtsM
25Wout WeghorstF
15Youri BaasD
6Youri RegeerM
10Oscar GloukhM
37Josip ŠutaloD
17Oliver EdvardsenM
3Anton GaaeiD

ExcelsiorExcelsior1:1

Starting XI

1Stijn van GasselG
17Nolan MartensD
20Lennard HartjesM
11Gyan de RegtM
33Jerolldino BergraafF
3Rick MeissenD
23Irakli YegoianM
10Noah NaujoksM
4Casper WidellD
30Derensili Sanches FernandesM
2Ilias BronkhorstD

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Ajax
Ajax
Form: L-L-D-W-L
Excelsior
Excelsior
Form: L-D-D-L-W
Record
2 W
3 D
5 L
3 W
2 D
5 L
Goals Per Game
1.3
Scored
vs
0.9
Scored
2.5
Conceded
vs
1.2
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
BTTS
70%
BTTS
50%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:0.8
Away:1.7
Conceded
Home:1.8
Away:3.0
Scored
Home:0.8
Away:1.0
Conceded
Home:1.0
Away:1.4

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1757
Good
1495
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1755
↓ Momentum (-2)
1509
↑ Momentum (+14)
Expected Outcome
64%
Home Win
22%
Draw
14%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1649
Attack
1494
1593
Defence
1463
Recent Form
1611
Attack
1489
1584
Defence
1481
Post-Match Changes
-23
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

Goal Fest Incoming When Ajax Hosts Excelsior
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+13.6%

Get ready for some serious goal action, folks! The Big O is getting excited about this matchup, and for good reason. When these two teams meet, the net always bulges - and I mean ALWAYS! Let's talk about the historical fireworks here. In nine previous meetings, both teams have scored in every single match. That's right - 100% record for both teams finding the net! Even better for us goal lovers, eight of those nine matches have gone over 2.5 goals. We're talking scorelines like 7-1, 6-2, 4-1, and recent 2-2 thrillers. This isn't just a trend; it's a goal-scoring tradition! Ajax's recent form might look concerning to some, but for The Big O, it's pure gold. They're conceding 2.5 goals per game and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Their recent reads like a goal fest: 3-3 draws, 5-1 thrashings, 4-0 demolitions. At home, they've been involved in some absolute crackers, including that 3-3 thriller with Sparta Rotterdam. Excelsior might be sitting near the bottom of the table, but they know how to score on the road. They're averaging a goal per away game and have found the net in recent trips to Telstar (2-2) and Heerenveen (1-2). Their away games are rarely boring affairs. The goal expectancy sits at 2.45 combined, but given the historical data and current defensive vulnerabilities, I expect we'll see that number easily surpassed. Ajax's leaky defense (1.75 goals conceded per home game) combined with Excelsior's ability to score away from home sets the stage perfectly for some goal action. The market might be underestimating the BTTS potential here. That 100% head-to-head record is too compelling to ignore, and at 1.67 odds, there's real value to be had. This is exactly the kind of high-scoring, exciting match that gets The Big O's blood pumping!

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📝 Match Preview

Ajax vs Excelsior: When Giants Stumble
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+11.9%

Hmm, much to ponder in this encounter. The force of form, it shifts constantly. Ajax, once mighty, now find themselves struggling in their own temple. Only one victory in four home games, they have managed. Conceding they are, at an alarming rate - 2.5 goals per game in their last ten encounters. The defense, a shadow of its former self. Excelsior, though low in the standings, show resilience. Three clean sheets in ten matches, they possess. Away from home, they score with purpose - one goal per game on their travels. Recent form tells a story: 1.10 points per game for the visitors, versus Ajax's mere 0.90. The gap between them, it narrows. History speaks volumes, it does. Nine times these teams have met. Nine times, both have found the net. A perfect record of goals from both sides. Recent encounters: 2-2, then 2-2 again. The pattern, it reveals itself. High-scoring affairs, most have been. Eight of nine meetings saw over 2.5 goals. Ajax's recent results paint a concerning picture. Defeated by Utrecht 2-1, overwhelmed by Galatasaray 0-3 at home, humbled by Chelsea 1-5. Even against lesser opponents, draws they have settled for - 1-1 with Heerenveen, 3-3 with Sparta Rotterdam. The attacking flow remains, but defensive solidity has abandoned them. Excelsior, though struggling, show fight. They held Telstar 2-2, defeated Fortuna Sittard 1-0, and even claimed victory at FC Volendam 2-1. Against stronger opposition like PSV, they only lost 1-2. The spirit, it remains strong. The betting market sees Ajax as favorites at 1.36, but wisdom suggests caution. Form, it trumps reputation. Both teams to score at 1.67, this calls to the wise bettor. The weight of history and current form, it points this way.

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