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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Swansea vs Derby

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:2HT 0–1

Match Timeline

34'
Joe Ward⚽
Normal Goal → Callum Elder
53'
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen⚽
Normal Goal
57'
Jay Fulton🔄
Substitution 1 → Marko Stamenić
57'
Ronald🔄
Substitution 2 → Manuel Benson
57'
Liam Cullen🔄
Substitution 3 → Gonçalo Franco
71'
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen🔄
Substitution 1 → Kayden Jackson
74'
Ji-sung Eom🔄
Substitution 4 → Zeidane Inoussa
80'
Joe Ward🔄
Substitution 2 → Ryan Nyambe
80'
Patrick Agyemang🔄
Substitution 3 → Andreas Weimann
82'
Ben Brereton Díaz🟨
Yellow Card
83'
Žan Vipotnik🔄
Substitution 5 → Adam Idah
90'
Ethan Galbraith⚽
Normal Goal
90+4'
Callum Elder🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal6
9Total Shots13
4Blocked Shots2
4Shots insidebox9
5Shots outsidebox4
10Fouls20
4Corner Kicks2
73Ball Possession27
0Yellow Cards2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
678Total passes241
585Passes accurate160
86Passes %66
0.63expected_goals1.05
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonWon

Derby to Sink Struggling Swansea

The pickDerby win

Chance
42%
Odds
3.75
Model EV
+57.5%

Ag man, this one looks pretty straightforward if you check the numbers! Swansea are in proper trouble at the moment, sitting 19th in the table with only 17 points from 16 games. Their recent form is shocking - just 2 wins in their last 10 matches and they're conceding nearly 2…

Umery UnderdogWon

Derby Ready to Pounce on Struggling Swansea

The pickDerby win

Chance
38%
Odds
3.75
Model EV
+42.5%

Oh, what a delightful opportunity we have here! While most eyes will be on the home side, I'm sniffing out some serious value in our visitors from Derby. Let me tell you why this little puppy has every chance to wag its tail come full-time! Swansea's recent form has been, shall…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Derby's Light vs Swansea's Darkness

The pickDerby win

Chance
40%
Odds
3.75
Model EV
+50.0%

In the grand theater of the Championship, two paths converge. One team walks in shadow, the other in light. Swansea, struggling in 19th place with but 17 points from 16 games, have found victory only twice in their last ten encounters. Their home fortress has crumbled, with…

Mr SimpleWon

Swansea vs Derby: Goals Galore Expected at Liberty?

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
60%
Odds
2.50
Model EV
+50.0%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Tuesday night tussle between Swansea and Derby. The lads from Swansea are having a right old time of it down in 19th, while Derby are sitting pretty in 9th. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but football's a funny old game, innit?…

Value VinnyWon

Derby's Away Form Exposes Swansea's Home Woes

The pickDerby win

Chance
42%
Odds
3.75
Model EV
+57.5%

The numbers don't lie here, and they're screaming value. Swansea sit 19th in the table with a miserable 17 points from 16 games, but it's their home form that's truly alarming - just one win in their last five home matches and an 80% loss rate. They're shipping goals at home…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Swansea

2W 2D 6L0.80 pts/game

Derby

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Per game

Swansea at home vs Derby away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+41Derby
Venue edge
+70Swansea
Rating period
Match snapshot
Swansea versus Derby: long term Elo, before the match
SwanseaHomeRatingDerbyAway
Strength
1,465Overall1,506
1,498Match venue1,428
1,498At home1,497
1,467Away1,428
Attack & defence
1,435Attack1,464
1,516Defence1,551
1,481Home attack1,433
1,424Away attack1,441
1,525Home defence1,585
1,523Away defence1,502
Match profile
1,528Goal environment1,510
1,485Home goals1,458
1,543Away goals1,552
1,514Possession1,475
Specialist ratings
1,504Set-piece attack1,482
1,504Set-piece defence1,482
1,493Close games1,480
1,450Winning margin1,513

Match venue compares Swansea at home with Derby away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

SwanseaSwansea1:1

Starting XI

22Lawrence VigourouxG
14Josh TymonD
30Ethan GalbraithM
10Ji-sung EomF
15Cameron BurgessD
4Jay FultonM
9Žan VipotnikF
5Ben CabangoD
20Liam CullenM
35RonaldF
2Josh KeyD

DerbyDerby1:1

Starting XI

1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
5Matthew ClarkeD
20Callum ElderM
25Ben Brereton DíazF
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
4Danny BatthD
32Ebou AdamsM
7Patrick AgyemangF
6Sondre Klingen LangåsD
42Bobby ClarkM
23Joe WardM