Swansea vs Derby Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Tuesday night tussle between Swansea and Derby. The lads from Swansea are having a right old time of it down in 19th, while Derby are sitting pretty in 9th. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but football's a funny old game, innit?

Swansea's home form has been absolutely shocking lately. I'm talking proper dreadful stuff - they've only won 20% of their last 5 home games and are leaking goals like a sieve. Two-point-four goals conceded per game at home? That's Championship relegation form, that is. They've been battered recently too - 3-0 by Bristol City, 1-4 by Ipswich, and 2-1 by Preston. The only wins they've managed recently were against Norwich (who are rock bottom) and a lucky 2-1 at Blackburn.

Derby, on the other hand, are ticking along nicely. They're grabbing 1.8 points per game and look solid on their travels - winning half of their last 4 away matches. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game away from home and keeping things tight at the back. They went to Blackburn and won 2-1, beat Hull City at home, and only slipped up recently against Watford.

Now here's where it gets interesting for us punters. Swansea's defense at home is about as sturdy as a paper umbrella in a hurricane, while Derby are putting the ball in the net for fun on the road. The goal expectancy numbers are screaming "goals" - we're looking at nearly 3 goals expected in this one.

Both teams have been seeing both teams score in 70% of their recent matches, and when you look at Swansea's home record (conceding 2.4 per game) against Derby's away scoring (1.5 per game), you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out what's coming.

The bookies have got Over 2.5 goals at 2.50, which looks pretty tasty given the circumstances. Swansea simply can't keep clean sheets at home, and Derby have shown they can score against anyone in this league.