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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Derby vs Leicester

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:3HT 0–3

Match Timeline

8'
Bobby Decordova-Reid⚽
Normal Goal → Jordan James
15'
Oliver Skipp⚽
Normal Goal
19'
Jannik Vestergaard🟨
Yellow Card
22'
Ebou Adams🟨
Yellow Card
24'
Sondre Klingen Langås🟨
Yellow Card
31'
Jordan James⚽
Normal Goal → Luke Thomas
46'
Ebou Adams🔄
Substitution 1 → Liam Thompson
46'
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen🔄
Substitution 2 → Andreas Weimann
63'
Sondre Klingen Langås⚽
Normal Goal → Joe Ward
64'
Bobby Decordova-Reid🟨
Yellow Card
65'
Bobby Decordova-Reid🔄
Substitution 1 → Hamza Choudhury
66'
Ben Brereton Díaz🔄
Substitution 3 → Corey Blackett-Taylor
66'
Dion Sanderson🔄
Substitution 4 → Kayden Jackson
77'
Liam Thompson🟨
Yellow Card
78'
Jordan Ayew🔄
Substitution 2 → Silko Thomas
78'
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku🔄
Substitution 3 → Patson Daka
87'
Jordan James🔄
Substitution 4 → Louis Page
87'
Stephy Mavididi🔄
Substitution 5 → Olabade Aluko
90'
Callum Elder🔄
Substitution 5 → Curtis Nelson

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal0
18Total Shots4
11Blocked Shots0
10Shots insidebox4
8Shots outsidebox0
11Fouls11
6Corner Kicks2
2Offsides1
61Ball Possession39
3Yellow Cards2
2Goalkeeper Saves4
426Total passes275
351Passes accurate198
82Passes %72
1.32expected_goals1.2
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Derby's Home Wisdom vs Leicester's Journey

The pickDerby win

Chance
45%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+21.5%

In the grand tapestry of the Championship, two forces converge. Derby, sitting 11th with 26 points, welcomes Leicester, 16th with 24 points. Close they are in the table, but different their paths have been. Recent form reveals much, young padawan. Derby shows strength with 6…

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Expected When Derby Hosts Leicester

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+21.0%

Get ready for some serious goal action, folks! The Big O is getting excited about this Championship clash, and the numbers are screaming "OVER!" Let me break down why this match has all the ingredients for a goal-fest. Derby comes into this game in decent form at home, averaging…

Mr SimpleLost

Derby to Edge Struggling Leicester

The pickDerby win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+13.4%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Derby and Leicester, separated by just two points in the table but miles apart when it comes to recent form, if you ask me. Derby have been decent lately, haven't they? Six wins in their last ten games, that's proper stuff…

Value VinnyLost

Derby vs Leicester: Home Advantage Offers Value

The pickDerby win

Chance
43%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+16.1%

The numbers don't lie here, and they're pointing squarely toward Derby's home advantage being undervalued by the market. Let's break down the mathematical reality. Derby sits 11th with 26 points, just two ahead of Leicester in 16th, but the recent form tells a completely…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Derby

6W 1D 3L1.90 pts/game

Leicester

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Per game

Derby at home vs Leicester away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+34Leicester
Venue edge
+66Leicester
Rating period
Match snapshot
Derby versus Leicester: long term Elo, before the match
DerbyHomeRatingLeicesterAway
Strength
1,505Overall1,539
1,497Match venue1,563
1,497At home1,615
1,435Away1,563
Attack & defence
1,469Attack1,511
1,543Defence1,545
1,433Home attack1,541
1,450Away attack1,521
1,585Home defence1,590
1,500Away defence1,556
Match profile
1,513Goal environment1,617
1,458Home goals1,582
1,555Away goals1,535
1,467Possession1,518
Specialist ratings
1,479Set-piece attack1,496
1,480Set-piece defence1,497
1,482Close games1,531
1,510Winning margin1,538

Match venue compares Derby at home with Leicester away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

DerbyDerbyUnknown

Starting XI

1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
6Sondre Klingen LangåsD
28Dion SandersonD
5Matthew ClarkeD
20Callum ElderD
23Joe WardM
32Ebou AdamsM
42Bobby ClarkM
25Ben Brereton DíazM
7Patrick AgyemangF
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF

LeicesterLeicesterUnknown

Starting XI

1Jakub StolarczykG
21Ricardo PereiraD
4Benjamin NelsonD
23Jannik VestergaardD
33Luke ThomasD
6Jordan JamesM
22Oliver SkippM
7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuM
14Bobby Decordova-ReidM
10Stephy MavididiM
9Jordan AyewF