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Match analysis

EnglandLeague One

Mansfield Town vs Plymouth

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League One fixture.

Full time2:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

6'
W. Evans⚽
Normal Goal
23'
Owen Dale🟨
Yellow Card
57'
B. Wiredu🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Paterson
68'
M. Boateng🔄
Substitution 2 → L. McCabe
68'
O. Oseni🔄
Substitution 3 → T. Finn
70'
T. Roberts🔄
Substitution 1 → R. Hendry
73'
Jamie McDonnell🟨
Yellow Card
79'
R. Oates🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Bowery
80'
W. Evans🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Gardner
84'
K. Szucs🔄
Substitution 4 → A. Pepple
84'
J. Bowery⚽
Normal Goal → N. Moriah-Welsh
87'
Caleb Roberts🟨
Yellow Card
90+2'
N. Moriah-Welsh🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Dickov
90+2'
S. McLaughlin🔄
Substitution 5 → D. Dwyer

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal6
12Total Shots14
3Blocked Shots4
9Shots insidebox10
3Shots outsidebox4
13Fouls5
7Corner Kicks4
1Offsides1
48Ball Possession52
1Yellow Cards2
4Goalkeeper Saves2
330Total passes360
210Passes accurate250
64Passes %69
2.42expected_goals1.28

Tipster previews (5)

PajimonLost

Plymouth to Sink Mansfield Despite League Gap

The pickPlymouth win

Chance
40%
Odds
3.20
Model EV
+28.0%

Right then, let's fire up the BBQ and look at this clash! On paper, you'd think Mansfield sitting 8th should have no problems against Plymouth down in 22nd, but the numbers tell a different story, my bru! Plymouth's recent form is actually solid - they're grabbing 1.70 points…

Mr SimpleLost

Stags vs Argyle: Table vs Form Clash

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
65%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+10.5%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this little cracker down at Field Mill. On paper, you'd think Mansfield have this sorted - sitting pretty in 8th with 19 points while Plymouth are propping up the table in 22nd with just 13. But football's not played on paper, is it? Take…

Value VinnyLost

Value Found in Plymouth's Away Win

The pickPlymouth win

Chance
36%
Odds
3.20
Model EV
+15.2%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the numbers. The bookies have got this one wrong, and that's where I find my edge. Mansfield sit 8th in the table with 19 points, but their recent form tells a different story - just 2 wins in their last 10 games and a measly 1.10 points…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Mansfield Town

2W 5D 3L1.10 pts/game

Plymouth

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Mansfield Town at home vs Plymouth away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League One

Overall edge
+95Plymouth
Venue edge
+60Plymouth
Rating period
Match snapshot
Mansfield Town versus Plymouth: long term Elo, before the match
Mansfield TownHomeRatingPlymouthAway
Strength
1,480Overall1,575
1,492Match venue1,552
1,492At home1,623
1,471Away1,552
Attack & defence
1,504Attack1,526
1,484Defence1,555
1,507Home attack1,513
1,492Away attack1,544
1,502Home defence1,590
1,477Away defence1,535
Match profile
1,565Goal environment1,690
1,528Home goals1,613
1,537Away goals1,577
1,495Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,504Set-piece attack1,514
1,504Set-piece defence1,513
1,441Close games1,579
1,496Winning margin1,567

Match venue compares Mansfield Town at home with Plymouth away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Mansfield TownMansfield Town1:1

Starting XI

1Liam RobertsG
3Stephen McLaughlinD
8Aaron LewisM
11Will EvansM
18Rhys OatesF
20Frazer Blake-TracyD
15Jamie McDonnellM
29Tyler RobertsM
23Adedeji OshilajaD
22Nathan Moriah-WelshM
2Kyle KnoyleD

PlymouthPlymouth1:1

Starting XI

1Conor HazardG
22Brendan GallowayD
35Owen DaleM
9Lorent TolajF
2Mathias RossD
11Bali MumbaM
18Owen OseniF
4Brendan Sarpong-WireduD
19Malachi BoatengM
24Caleb RobertsM
6Kornél SzűcsM