Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 15:00
Ligue 1
France
France
Full Time

Match Timeline

8'
Achraf Hakimi🟨
Yellow Card
24'
Pathé Mboup🟨
Yellow Card
29'
A. Hakimi
Normal Goal → Vitinha
39'
A. Hakimi
Normal Goal → K. Kvaratskhelia
57'
Romain Del Castillo
Penalty confirmed
67'
J. Dina Ebimbe🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Tousart
67'
P. Mboup🔄
Substitution 2 → M. Balde
67'
W. Pacho🔄
Substitution 1 → Marquinhos
67'
Lee Kang-In🔄
Substitution 2 → O. Dembele
70'
K. Kvaratskhelia🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Doue
78'
H. Magnetti🔄
Substitution 3 → H. Makalou
79'
B. Locko🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Guindo
79'
B. Barcola🔄
Substitution 4 → G. Ramos
79'
S. Mayulu🔄
Substitution 5 → Q. Ndjantou
90'
D. Doue
Normal Goal → W. Zaire-Emery
90+3'
R. Del Castillo🔄
Substitution 5 → L. Zogbe

Match Statistics

2Shots on Goal8
5Shots off Goal8
8Total Shots18
1Blocked Shots2
4Shots insidebox9
4Shots outsidebox9
10Fouls10
2Corner Kicks7
2Offsides2
25Ball Possession75
1Yellow Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
260Total passes808
191Passes accurate751
73Passes %93
1.64expected_goals1.45
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291:1

Starting XI

1Radosław MajeckiG
2Bradley LockoD
8Hugo MagnettiM
99Pathé MboupM
19Ludovic AjorqueF
44Soumaila CoulibalyD
13Joris ChotardM
10Romain Del CastilloM
4Michel DiazD
7Junior Dina EbimbeM
77Kenny LalaD

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1:1

Starting XI

30Lucas ChevalierG
21Lucas HernándezD
19Kang-in LeeM
29Bradley BarcolaF
51Willian PachoD
17VitinhaM
24Senny MayuluF
6Ilya ZabarnyiD
33Warren Zaïre-EmeryM
7Khvicha KvaratskheliaF
2Achraf HakimiD

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Form: D-D-W-W-L
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Form: W-D-D-W-W
Record
3 W
4 D
3 L
7 W
2 D
1 L
Goals Per Game
1.7
Scored
vs
2.8
Scored
1.6
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
BTTS
70%
BTTS
50%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:1.6
Conceded
Home:1.4
Away:1.8
Scored
Home:2.4
Away:3.2
Conceded
Home:0.6
Away:1.6

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1609
Good
1782
Good
Short Term Elo Rating
1629
↑ Momentum (+20)
1822
↑ Momentum (+40)
Expected Outcome
20%
Home Win
26%
Draw
54%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1558
Attack
1715
1519
Defence
1616
Recent Form
1577
Attack
1731
1486
Defence
1613
Post-Match Changes
-6
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

PSG's Attack Set To Feast Again
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.50
Expected Value:+5.0%

Right then, let's fire up the BBQ and look at this clash! Brest sitting mid-table with 9 points while PSG are breathing down Marseille's neck in second place. The gap in quality is massive here, boet. Brest's recent form has been a bit of a mixed bag - they're scoring goals for fun with that 4-1 hammering of Nice and a 3-3 draw with Lorient, but they're also leaking goals like a sieve. They've managed just 2 wins in 8 league games and haven't exactly been setting the world alight at home. Now PSG... AG MAN! These guys are absolutely destroying everything in their path. That 7-2 demolition of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League was something else! They're averaging nearly 3 goals per game overall and a ridiculous 3.2 goals on their travels. Even when they drop points, like that 3-3 with Strasbourg, they're still putting three past teams. The head-to-head tells you everything you need to know - PSG have won 8 out of 9 meetings, with Brest never beating them. Last time they met? A 7-0 thrashing! Eight of those nine games went over 2.5 goals, and given PSG's current attacking form and Brest's defensive vulnerabilities, we could be in for another goal fest. Brest does score at home (1.8 goals per game), but PSG's attack is on another level right now. With PSG averaging 3.2 away goals and Brest conceding 1.4 at home, the math looks pretty straightforward for goals. Key Points: - PSG in devastating attacking form (7-2 vs Leverkusen) - Brest conceding regularly despite scoring goals - Head-to-head: PSG 8W-1D-0L, last meeting 7-0 to PSG - 8/9 H2H meetings went over 2.5 goals - PSG averaging 3.2 away goals, Brest conceding 1.4 at home This has all the makings of a proper goal fest. PSG's attack is red hot and Brest can't keep clean sheets. The over 2.5 goals market looks like the smart money here - plenty of value in what should be an entertaining shootout!

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📝 Match Preview

Brest Ready to Bark Against PSG Giants
Recommendation:DRAW
Odds:4.75
Expected Value:+33.0%

Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! Little Stade Brestois 29, sitting 12th in the table, gets to host the mighty Paris Saint Germain who are perched comfortably in 2nd place. Now, I know what you're thinking - PSG just demolished Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 in the Champions League, but let's not count our puppies out just yet! Brest have been showing some real bite at home recently. Just look at their last few matches at their den - they hammered Nice 4-1, shared the spoils in a thrilling 3-3 with Lille, and kept a clean sheet against Nantes. That's 3 draws in their last 5 home games! These pups aren't rolling over for anyone, averaging 1.80 goals per game on their own patch. PSG, for all their star power, have shown some vulnerability away from home. They've been drawing games lately - 3-3 with Strasbourg and 1-1 at Lille - and they're conceding 1.60 goals per game on their travels. That's not exactly fortress-like defending, is it? The head-to-head record does look scary for Brest fans (0 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses), but remember that 0-7 thrashing from last season? Sometimes after such a heavy defeat, a team comes back with extra determination to avoid embarrassment. Plus, at 4.75 odds for the draw, we're getting lovely value on Brest not losing - which is exactly the kind of underdog success story I love to back! Both teams tend to find the net too, with Brest seeing both teams score in 70% of their recent games. This could be another entertaining affair where our little pups make the big dogs work for every single point.

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📝 Match Preview

PSG Visit Brest: Goals Galore on the Cards?
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+5.2%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash between Brest and PSG. The table tells us one story - PSG sitting pretty in 2nd with 17 points, while Brest are down in 12th with just 9. But football's not played on paper, is it? Brest have been a bit of a mixed bag recently. They had that cracking 4-1 win over Nice at home, and a decent 2-0 victory at Angers. But they've also had some proper stinkers, like losing 1-2 at home to Paris FC. They're averaging 1.7 goals per game, which isn't too shabby, but they're also letting in 1.6. That's what I call entertainment value! PSG, on the other hand, have been absolutely flying. Seven wins in their last ten, and get this - they just put SEVEN past Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League! That's not just winning, that's making a statement. They're averaging 2.8 goals per game, which is some going by anyone's standards. But here's where it gets interesting - PSG have had a couple of draws recently (3-3 with Strasbourg, 1-1 with Lille), and they did lose 1-0 to Marseille. So they're not completely untouchable. The head-to-head makes for brutal reading for Brest fans though. Nine meetings, zero wins for Brest, one draw, and EIGHT wins for PSG. The last time they met, PSG put SEVEN past them. That's the sort of result that gives defenders nightmares. Looking at the stats, PSG are averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home, while Brest are scoring 1.8 at home but also conceding 1.4. Both teams seem to find the net regularly - Brest have both teams scoring in 70% of their recent games, PSG in 50%. The odds are making PSG heavy favorites at 1.44, which seems about right given the gulf in class and that H2H record. But sometimes the obvious bet isn't the value bet. Key Points: - PSG are 2nd in the table with 17 points, Brest are 12th with 9 points - PSG have won 7 of their last 10 games, including a 7-2 thrashing of Bayer Leverkusen - Brest have scored 17 goals in their last 10 games (1.7 per game) - Head-to-head: PSG have won 8 of 9 meetings against Brest - PSG average 3.2 goals per game away from home - Brest have both teams scoring in 70% of their recent matches Both teams have been finding the net regularly, and while PSG are clear favorites, Brest have shown they can score at home. With PSG's recent defensive wobbles (they've let in 11 goals in 10 games) and Brest's attacking intent, I'm backing both teams to get on the scoresheet.

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📝 Match Preview

PSG's Goal Fest Continues at Brest
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.50
Expected Value:+5.0%

Alright, let's talk about what really matters - goals, goals, and more goals! This fixture has all the ingredients for a spectacular scoring display, and The Big O is here for it. First, let's look at Stade Brestois 29 at home. They've been anything but boring recently, with a thrilling 3-3 draw against Lorient and a dominant 4-1 victory over Nice. Their home games average 3.2 total goals (1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded), and they've kept clean sheets in only 20% of their matches. When Brest plays at home, both teams find the net 70% of the time - music to my ears! Now for the main event - Paris Saint Germain on their travels. Hold onto your hats, because these guys are absolutely explosive away from home! They're averaging a ridiculous 3.2 goals scored per away game. Just look at their recent away performances: a jaw-dropping 7-2 demolition of Bayer Leverkusen, a 6-3 thrashing of Toulouse, and a 2-1 victory over Barcelona. This isn't just a team; it's a goal-scoring machine! But here's where it gets really interesting for us Over lovers - the head-to-head history is absolutely glorious. Eight out of nine meetings between these sides have gone Over 2.5 goals (that's 89%!). The last five encounters read like a goal-fest: 0-7, 0-3, 2-5, 1-3, and 1-3. Both teams have scored in six of those nine matches. The goal expectancy model shows 4.00 expected goals for this match (1.70 for Brest, 2.30 for PSG), which strongly suggests we're in for another high-scoring affair. With PSG averaging 2.8 goals per game overall and Brest contributing 1.7, we're looking at a potential goal bonanza. The odds of 1.50 for Over 2.5 goals offer tremendous value here. Given the historical data, current form, and both teams' scoring tendencies, I'm estimating this has around a 70% chance of hitting - well above the fair probability of 63.59%. This is exactly the kind of match that gets The Big O excited - two teams who love to attack, a history of high-scoring encounters, and value in the market. Let's hope for another classic!

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