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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:1HT 0–1

Match Timeline

23'
A. Morris⚽
Normal Goal → S. Berhalter
28'
Hannibal Mejbri🟨
Yellow Card
39'
Will Lankshear🟨
Yellow Card
46'
H. Mejbri🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Alleyne
46'
A. Hountondji🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Ramazani
54'
U. Raghouber⚽
Normal Goal → Z. Amdouni
61'
K. Joseph🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Castledine
61'
R. McGree🔄
Substitution 2 → T. Conway
71'
Alfie Jones🟨
Yellow Card
71'
Z. Amdouni🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Ramsey
74'
A. Jones🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Phillips
77'
J. Bruun Larsen🔄
Substitution 4 → A. Broja
81'
D. Satpaev🔄
Substitution 5 → M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
87'
W. Lankshear🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Strelec
90+1'
Ugo Raghouber🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal5
11Total Shots10
4Blocked Shots3
6Shots insidebox4
5Shots outsidebox6
11Fouls8
5Corner Kicks1
2Offsides6
43Ball Possession57
2Yellow Cards2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
390Total passes541
301Passes accurate466
77Passes %86
0.64expected_goals1.22
0.42goals_prevented0.42

Tipster previews (3)

Value VinnyLost

Burnley vs Middlesbrough | Value Analysis

The pickMiddlesbrough win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.90
Model EV
+21.8%

The Championship landscape is currently providing a stark contrast in form between these two sides. Burnley is currently languishing in 22nd place, a position that perfectly encapsulates their struggle to find any consistency. With only 1 point from their opening 3 matches and a…

PajimonLost

Middlesbrough to Overpower a Struggling Burnley

The pickMiddlesbrough win

Chance
45%
Odds
2.90
Model EV
+30.5%

Listen up, because we're looking at a situation that's as clear as a cold beer on a hot day. Burnley is in a proper mess right now. Look at the table—they’re sitting 22nd with just a single point from three games. That’s not just a bad run; that’s a total collapse. They haven't…

Umery UnderdogLost

Middlesbrough: The True Underdog Value

The pickMiddlesbrough win

Chance
40%
Odds
2.90
Model EV
+16.0%

Hello there, football fans and fellow underdog lovers! 🐾 It’s your favorite pup, Umery Underdog, here to sniff out the hidden gems in the Championship. Today, we’re looking at a fascinating clash between Burnley and Middlesbrough, and I’ve spotted a little puppy that deserves…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Burnley

0W 5D 5L0.50 pts/game

Middlesbrough

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Per game

Burnley at home vs Middlesbrough away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+151Burnley
Venue edge
+184Burnley
Rating period
Match snapshot
Burnley versus Middlesbrough: long term Elo, before the match
BurnleyHomeRatingMiddlesbroughAway
Strength
1,706Overall1,555
1,709Match venue1,525
1,709At home1,575
1,674Away1,525
Attack & defence
1,543Attack1,502
1,702Defence1,581
1,545Home attack1,475
1,527Away attack1,532
1,714Home defence1,622
1,672Away defence1,518
Match profile
1,395Goal environment1,405
1,413Home goals1,277
1,482Away goals1,628
1,503Possession1,561
Specialist ratings
1,510Set-piece attack1,577
1,509Set-piece defence1,576
1,665Close games1,509
1,710Winning margin1,575

Match venue compares Burnley at home with Middlesbrough away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BurnleyBurnley1:1

Starting XI

1M. WeissG
14C. RobertsD
7J. Bruun LarsenM
12D. SatpaevM
11Z. AmdouniF
18H. EkdalD
8U. RaghouberM
17A. HountondjiM
15A. AhmedhodzicD
28H. MejbriM
22O. SonneD

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1:1

Starting XI

1R. VitekG
30Neto BorgesD
6S. BerhalterM
22K. JosephF
5A. JonesD
29A. MalandaM
7W. LankshearF
12L. AylingD
10A. MorrisM
8R. McGreeF
2C. BrittainD