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Match analysis

EnglandLeague One

Luton vs Notts County

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League One fixture.

Full time2:2HT 1–1

Match Timeline

18'
Jordan Clark🔄
Substitution 1 → Gideon Kodua
31'
Luka Smyth🟨
Yellow Card
32'
George Johnston🟨
Yellow Card
39'
Scott Robertson🟨
Yellow Card
42'
Nahki Wells
Penalty
45'
Kal Naismith🟨
Yellow Card
45+1'
Callum Roberts⚽
Normal Goal
47'
Kasey Palmer🟨
Yellow Card
56'
Nahki Wells🟨
Yellow Card
61'
Oliver Cooper⚽
Normal Goal → Nick Tsaroulla
62'
Nahki Wells🔄
Substitution 2 → Callum Marshall
62'
Emilio Lawrence🔄
Substitution 3 → Benedict Benagr
62'
Luka Smyth🔄
Substitution 1 → Conor Grant
68'
Callum Marshall⚽
Normal Goal → Kasey Palmer
72'
Scott Robertson🔄
Substitution 2 → Hindolo Mustapha
73'
Callum Roberts🔄
Substitution 3 → Lee Ndlovu
73'
Nick Tsaroulla🔄
Substitution 4 → Ishé Samuels-Smith
80'
Isaiah Jones🔄
Substitution 4 → Harrison Ashby
86'
Oliver Cooper🔄
Substitution 5 → Qamaruddin Kouhyar
86'
Darius Lipsiuc🔄
Substitution 6 → Matthew Baker
90+3'
Liam Walsh🟨
Yellow Card
90+3'
Hindolo Mustapha🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal0
14Total Shots6
4Blocked Shots2
9Shots insidebox2
5Shots outsidebox4
15Fouls18
8Corner Kicks3
1Offsides1
58Ball Possession42
5Yellow Cards3
2Goalkeeper Saves2
418Total passes311
331Passes accurate221
79Passes %71
1.93expected_goals0.79
-0.24goals_prevented-0.24

Tipster previews (5)

OracleLost

Luton vs Notts County: The Quiet Path to Profit

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
2.08
Model EV
+35.2%

The seasons turn, and the pitch reveals what the eye often misses. Luton Town arrives at Kenilworth Road fourth in League One, carrying the echo of a seven-goal thriller against Reading. Yet, beneath the roar of that result lies a quieter truth. Home soil has tempered their…

Value VinnyLost

Luton vs Notts County Preview & Betting Tips

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
63%
Odds
2.08
Model EV
+31.0%

Odds don’t lie — but compilers do. When the math points one way, I follow the numbers, not the narrative. Luton vs Notts County sits at the intersection of strong home form, a defensive-minded away side, and a market that has mispriced the goal environment. Here’s the breakdown…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Luton

7W 2D 1L2.30 pts/game

Notts County

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

Per game

Luton at home vs Notts County away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League One

Overall edge
+196Luton
Venue edge
+193Luton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Luton versus Notts County: long term Elo, before the match
LutonHomeRatingNotts CountyAway
Strength
1,604Overall1,408
1,629Match venue1,437
1,629At home1,450
1,546Away1,437
Attack & defence
1,572Attack1,390
1,527Defence1,485
1,579Home attack1,441
1,542Away attack1,392
1,558Home defence1,514
1,530Away defence1,491
Match profile
1,598Goal environment1,553
1,573Home goals1,545
1,525Away goals1,508
1,527Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,535Set-piece attack1,500
1,535Set-piece defence1,500
1,576Close games1,455
1,615Winning margin1,387

Match venue compares Luton at home with Notts County away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

LutonLutonUnknown

Starting XI

24Josh KeeleyG
25Isaiah JonesD
5Mads AndersenD
6George JohnstonD
3Kal NaismithD
8Liam WalshM
7Jake RichardsM
18Jordan ClarkM
45Kasey PalmerM
11Emilio LawrenceM
21Nahki WellsF

Notts CountyNotts CountyUnknown

Starting XI

1James BelshawG
25Nick TsaroullaD
2James GibbonsD
12Lucas NessD
4Jacob BedeauD
14Darius LipsiucD
8Oliver CooperM
20Scott RobertsonM
15Jack EvansM
19Luka SmythF
7Callum RobertsF