Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction

Right then, let's get straight into this one. Llantwit Major hosting Caerau (Ely) in the FAW Championship, and there's some proper storylines here.

Caerau (Ely) are flying in at the moment. Look at those numbers - 6 wins from their last 10 games, 1.90 points per game, and they're absolutely deadly on the road. They've won 60% of their away fixtures and are banging in 3 goals per game when they're on the trot. Their recent form reads like a goalscorer's wishlist: a 5-0 demolition of Baglan Dragons, then 3-0, 4-1, and 4-0 wins. That's 16 goals in four games. Proper ferocious.

Llantwit Major, meanwhile, are decent but inconsistent. They've won 5 of their last 10, which is respectable, but their defence is a proper sieve. Only one clean sheet in ten games. Their last two results tell the story - they went down 4-1 at Afan Lido and lost 2-3 at home to Ammanford. They can score - they've got 21 goals in their last 10 - but they're leaking them too.

The head-to-head is balanced - 2 wins each and 2 draws from 6 meetings. But four of those six have seen over 2.5 goals, and four have seen both teams score. Last time out was a 0-0 draw back in September, but before that we saw a 4-2 thriller and a 2-3 away win for Caerau (Ely).

Caerau (Ely) are favourites at 1.65, and honestly, it's not hard to see why. They're in better form, they're scoring goals at will, and Llantwit Major's defence has been all over the place. The away side have been clinical - averaging 2.8 goals per game over their last 10 - and they've got that killer instinct on the road.

Llantwit Major will try to cause problems at home - they've got a 50% home win rate and they do score regularly - but Caerau (Ely) look the stronger side on paper and in the stats. The only worry for Caerau (Ely) fans is that 0-0 draw against Cwmbran Celtic last time out, but that's one game. The overall picture is clear.

This one's got Over 2.5 Goals written all over it too - four of the last six H2Hs have gone over, and both teams score regularly. But the value here is on the away side to do the business.

Key Points:

• Caerau (Ely) won 60% of their last 10 games with 1.90 PPG

• Llantwit Major has only 1 clean sheet in 10 games

• Caerau (Ely) average 3.00 goals per game away from home

• Four of six H2Hs have seen over 2.5 goals

• Caerau (Ely) have won 4 of their last 5 league games

The Tip: Caerau (Ely) to win at 1.65. They're in better form, they're scoring freely, and Llantwit Major's defence can't keep up with anyone. Proper value on the away side.