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Right then, let's have a proper look at this one! AD Ceuta FC welcome Leganes to what's been a proper fortress lately. The home side are sitting pretty in 10th with 18 points, while Leganes are down in 15th on 15 points.
Ceuta have been absolutely solid at home, mate. We're talking 75% win rate in their last 4 home games and only letting in 0.25 goals per game on their own patch. That's proper defensive stuff! They've kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 games overall - 70% rate is absolutely brilliant for this level.
Looking at their recent results, Ceuta drew 1-1 with Almeria (who're flying high in 5th), and before that they beat Cultural Leonesa 1-0, Mirandes 2-0, and Eibar 1-0. The only blot was a 2-0 loss at Cordoba, but everyone has off days, right?
Leganes have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit. Proper rubbish at home (75% loss rate!) but actually decent away with a 50% win rate on their travels. Problem is, they've lost their last two - 2-1 at Real Sociedad II and 1-2 at home to Burgos.
The stats tell the story: Ceuta average 1.1 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game. Leganes are similar with 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Both teams know how to keep it tight at the back.
With no head-to-head history to go on, we're looking purely at current form, and Ceuta's home form is screaming value here. They've been proper solid at their place, and Leganes have been inconsistent all season.
The bookies have Ceuta at 2.38 for the win, which I reckon is decent value given their home record. This looks like one of those tight, niggly affairs where home advantage and defensive solidity could just about edge it.