Mantova vs Reggiana Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Mantova and Reggiana. Both sides are knocking around the bottom half of the table, and frankly, neither has been pulling up any trees lately.

Mantova are sitting 16th with just 14 points from 14 games - not exactly setting the world alight, are they? But here's the thing: when they play at home, they're a different beast altogether. They've been banging in 1.75 goals per game on their own patch, including that cracking 4-1 win over Spezia in their last home fixture. They dominate possession at home too (nearly 68%), which tells you they like to have a right good go at it.

Reggiana, sitting three places higher in 11th, have been a bit of a mixed bag. Their away form is proper dodgy though - they've only won 20% of their away games and are shipping goals for fun on the road (2.20 per game!). Just look at their recent away trips: 3-4 at Avellino, 1-3 at Monza, 1-3 at Sudtirol. Their defense seems to pack up when they leave home.

Now, the head-to-head doesn't look great for Mantova - they've never beaten Reggiana at home in two attempts. But sometimes stats are made to be broken, especially when you consider the current form patterns.

The real story here is goals. Mantova are scoring freely at home, Reggiana are scoring away but can't defend to save their lives on the road. The goal expectancy is sitting at 3.30, which tells you everything you need to know. When you've got a home side averaging 1.75 goals and an away side conceding 2.20, you're looking at a recipe for goal-fest.

Both teams have been finding the net regularly too - 50% of Mantova's recent games have seen both teams score, while Reggiana are at 60%. With Reggiana's away defensive record and Mantova's home attacking form, I'd be surprised if we don't see a few goals here.