Preview
Mr CertaintyCaerau (Ely) arrive at this FAW Championship fixture on the back of a remarkable run. Their last five matches have produced five wins, 15 goals scored and just one conceded, a stretch that includes a 6–0 demolition of llanelli AFC at home on 16 October and a 3–1 away victory over Cardiff Draconians on 26 September. At their own ground over 20 games, Caerau (Ely) have won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, averaging 2.4 goals per game while keeping 8 clean sheets.
The visitors, Llantwit Major, present a very different picture. Their last five matches yielded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Over 20 away games, their record stands at 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses, with 1.45 goals scored per game and 2.05 conceded. Their latest 10 matches across all venues show 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with just 0.9 goals per game.
The head-to-head offers limited recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months came on 28 March 2026 at Llantwit Major's ground, where Caerau (Ely) won 4–1 on the road. Older meetings at Caerau (Ely)'s ground are historical record only, and the most recent of those was a 0–0 draw in September 2025.
The counter-argument is that Llantwit Major are not without quality. They beat Carmarthen Town 2–1 away on 2 October and drew 1–1 at home against Pontardawe Town on 10 October. They have scored in all five of their last matches, and their away record does include 4 wins in 20 games. However, the weight of evidence — Caerau (Ely)'s perfect recent run, their dominant home numbers, and Llantwit Major's struggles on the road — points firmly in the hosts' favour.
Key Points:
- Caerau (Ely) have won their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 1
- At home over 20 games, Caerau (Ely) have won 12 and averaged 2.4 goals per game
- Llantwit Major's away record over 20 games is 4W 8D 8L with 2.05 goals conceded per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (28 March 2026) saw Caerau (Ely) win 4–1 away
- Llantwit Major have lost 6 of their last 10 matches across all venues
Verdict: Caerau (Ely) home win.
