Fiorentina vs Pisa Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint, because we've got a proper relegation scrap on our hands! Fiorentina versus Pisa is your classic six-pointer – 18th against 19th in Serie A – and while neither of these lot are setting the world alight, there's definitely a few quid to be made if you know where to look.

Now, the Viola have been having a shocker of a season, let's not beat around the bush. Sat there on 21 points with only four wins all campaign, they're in the mire. But – and here's the thing – they've shown a bit of fight lately. They went up to Como last week and nicked a 2-1 win against a side flying high in sixth, and they followed that up with a lovely 3-0 job away to Jagiellonia in the Conference League on Thursday. That's five goals in two games, and you can see the confidence coming back. Mind you, their home form is still ropey – just one win in their last five at home – but they're scoring, and that's what matters for us punters.

As for Pisa? Bless 'em, they've only won one game all season. One! Twelve draws though, so they know how to park the bus and frustrate the life out of teams. But here's the kicker – while they can't buy a win, they can certainly find the net away from home. They've scored in four of their last five away days, including at AC Milan and twice at Inter (even if they did get walloped 6-2). They bag 1.4 goals per game on their travels, which isn't half bad for a side second from bottom.

When these two met back in September, it finished 0-0 – a right snooze-fest. But that was then, and this is now. Fiorentina are finding their shooting boots, and Pisa are leaking 2.2 goals per game on the road. The stats tell us Fiorentina's last ten games have seen both teams score in 80% of them, while Pisa's hit 70%. With the goal expectancies sitting at 1.70 for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors, we're looking at a match that should have goals in it.

Key Points:

• Fiorentina have scored 5 goals in their last 2 games, showing real attacking improvement

• Pisa have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches despite their lowly position

• Both Teams to Score has landed in 8 of Fiorentina's last 10 outings

• Pisa concede an average of 2.2 goals per game away from home

• The reverse fixture ended 0-0, but current form suggests a different story this time

So, what's the play? I'm not touching Fiorentina at 1.67 – that's too skinny for a side with only a 20% home win rate this season. And you can't back Pisa to win, can you? Not with their record. But Both Teams to Score at 1.75? That's the one. Both these sides are involved in goal-fests regularly, and with Pisa needing a result and Fiorentina pushing for survival, we should see action at both ends. Back BTTS Yes at 1.75 – it's the smart money.