Preview
Now look, I'm a man who enjoys his braai, his cold one, and a team that actually wins. And Caerau (Ely) have been doing exactly that. Five wins in a row, 15 goals scored, one goal conceded. That is not a coincidence, that is a team on a roll. At home, over 20 games, they've posted 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, scoring 2.4 per game and conceding 1.3. That is a solid record, and it tells you that when they park the bus at their own ground, they are hard to shift.
Now turn to Llantwit Major on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses. They score 1.45 per game on the road and concede 2.05. In their last 10 matches across all venues, they've won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6. That is not a team that travels well. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at home against Pontardawe Town, and before that a 1-4 loss at Pontypridd Town. The only meeting between these two sides within the last 12 months was at Llantwit Major's ground six months ago, and Caerau won 4-1. That is the only current head-to-head data point we have, and it points firmly in Caerau's favour.
Now, I'll give Llantwit Major their due. They did pick up a 2-1 win at Carmarthen Town three weeks ago, and they have scored in 17 of their 20 away fixtures, so they are not a team that sits there and does nothing. The head-to-head at Caerau's ground has no meeting within the last 12 months, so we cannot lean on a pattern of results at this specific venue. The older meetings at Caerau's ground show 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss for the hosts, but those are historical and do not tell us much about what is happening now. The real story is the form gap: Caerau are flying, Llantwit Major are stumbling.
The scoring numbers back it up. Caerau average 2.4 goals per game at home. Llantwit Major average 1.45 per game away. Caerau have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their 20 home games. Llantwit Major have kept clean sheets in just 1 of their last 5 and 2 of their 20 away games. The numbers line up in one direction, and that direction is Caerau.
Key Points:
- Caerau (Ely) have won their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 1
- Llantwit Major have lost 6 of their last 10 and sit at 4W 8D 8L in 20 away games
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (6 months ago) ended 4-1 to Caerau
- Caerau score 2.4 per game at home; Llantwit Major score 1.45 per game away
- Caerau have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches
My pick: Caerau (Ely) home win.
