SS Monopoli vs Benevento Prediction

In the galaxy of Serie C, a significant clash approaches. SS Monopoli hosts Benevento on 2026-03-23. 19:30 kickoff, the time is set.

The standings, they tell a tale of disparity. Benevento sits at position 1, with 76 points. SS Monopoli rests at position 8, with 47 points. A 29-point gap exists. In the league, this is a vast distance.

Recent form, look closely. Benevento, in their last 10 games, 9 wins they have, 1 draw, 0 losses. 90% win rate, dominant it is. Away from home, 100% win rate in last 5 away games. Goals scored per game: 2.20 average. Goals conceded per game: 0.80 average. Clean sheets, 50% they keep. Strong is their defense.

SS Monopoli, a different picture. Last 10 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. 40% win rate. At home, 75% win rate in last 4 home games. Home goals scored: 1.25 per game. Home goals conceded: 0.50 per game. But overall, goals scored is only 0.70 per game.

Head-to-head history, complicated it is. SS Monopoli has 3 wins historically against Benevento. But the last meeting, November 16, 2025, 1-3 scoreline, Benevento won. Trends show Benevento improving in goals scored and conceded. Monopoli points trend is declining.

Goal expectancies, the math speaks. Home team expects 1.02 goals. Away team expects 1.65 goals. Total expected goals: 2.67. Over 2.5 goals odds: 2.35. Under 2.5 odds: 1.57. Market consensus suggests Under is more likely. Fair probability for Under is 59.95%.

But the value, where is it? Away win odds, 1.85. Implied probability is 54%. True probability, 65% I estimate, based on the form gap. Positive EV, there is. Hedge your bets, you should, but the away win, strong signal it sends.

Key Points:

• Benevento is top of the table (76 pts) vs Monopoli (47 pts).

• Benevento has a 100% away win rate in last 5 away games.

• Monopoli has a 75% home win rate in last 4 home games.

• H2H favors Monopoli historically, but recent meeting was a 3-1 win for Benevento.

• Goal expectancy suggests 2.67 total goals.

The wise choice: Back the away team. Benevento, the favorite they are. 1.85 odds, good value it offers. Do or do not bet, there is no try. But hedge your bets, you should.