Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction
Inter to shut out struggling Fiorentina
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Inter at home against the bottom of the league Fiorentina - on paper it looks like a walk in the park for the Nerazzurri, but let's dig into the numbers and see what story they tell.
Inter are sitting pretty in 4th place with 15 points from 8 games, and they've been banging them in for fun at home - 2.5 goals per game on their own patch. They've won 3 of their last 4 at home, including a proper thumping of Cremonese (4-1) and a solid 1-0 win over AS Roma away. They did get turned over 3-1 by Napoli in their last game, but even the best teams have off days, don't they?
Fiorentina, well, they're in a right mess. Rock bottom of Serie A with just 4 points from 8 games, and not a single win to their name all season. They've drawn 4 games, which tells you they're hard to beat but just can't get over the line. Away from home, they're scoring just 1 goal per game - hardly terrifying stuff, is it? Their recent results show the story: draws with Bologna (2-2), Pisa (0-0), and Torino (0-0), but losses to AC Milan (2-1) and AS Roma (2-1).
When these two have met, it's usually Inter who come out on top. Six wins to two for Fiorentina in nine meetings, and Inter have won three of the last four encounters. Last time out, it was Inter 2-1, and before that a comfortable 3-0 win.
The stats back up what we're seeing - Inter are averaging 18.4 shots per game compared to Fiorentina's 12.7, and they're keeping the ball better too (58.2% possession vs 51.5%). At home, Inter are keeping clean sheets half the time, while Fiorentina are struggling to find the net on their travels.
Now, the bookies have Inter at 1.36 to win, which seems a bit short for me - not much value there. But Both Teams To Score No at 1.75 catches my eye. Fiorentina can't score away from home, and Inter are solid at the back. Simple maths, really.
The goal expectancy suggests about 2.55 goals in this game, but with Fiorentina's away scoring record and Inter's home defensive record, I'm leaning towards a low-scoring affair where one team - probably Inter - does all the scoring.