Right, so we've got ADO Den Haag hosting PSV Eindhoven on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a bit of a story to it.
PSV are the ones to watch here, and not just because they're PSV. Their away record over the last 20 games is 13 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, with 2.25 goals scored per game. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, they've won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2, scoring 2.7 a game. That's a side that's clicking. They beat Heerenveen 2–0 at home on 9 October and, despite dropping a 0–1 away to RB Leipzig in the Champions League on 13 October, they've been scoring freely. Their xG numbers back it up: 2.63 per game over their last six matches with data, against just 1.07 conceded per game.
Now ADO Den Haag. Look at their last five: no wins. Three draws and two losses. They drew 2–2 at Telstar on 11 October, drew 1–1 with Cambuur at home on 19 September, lost 0–2 at Twente, lost 2–3 to Fortuna Sittard at home, and drew 2–2 at Feyenoord. That's 0.6 points per game. Over their last 10, they've managed just 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses. Their xG against is 2.43 per game, which means they're getting battered.
The head-to-head is a bit dated — the last meeting was back in March 2023, a 3–1 PSV win in the KNVB Beker. Before that, PSV won 4 of 5 meetings, including a 4–0 at their own ground in 2020. So the history says PSV, but it's 3 to 7 years old, so I'd take it with a pinch of salt and lean on the current form instead.
The counter-argument? Well, ADO's home record over 20 games is 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 2.2 goals scored per game and 8 clean sheets. That's not nothing. And PSV did lose their last game, so they're not invincible. Plus, ADO have scored in 4 of their last 5 and conceded in all 5, so this could be a goal-fest either way.
But here's the thing: the recent form gap is massive. PSV are scoring 2.7 a game, ADO are scoring 1.3. PSV are conceding 1.2, ADO are conceding 1.9. The xG numbers tell the same story. PSV are the stronger side, and the market agrees — they're priced at 1.3 for the away win, which puts them at 76.92% in the bookmaker's eyes.
My own read? I'd put PSV's chances at around 73 to 74 percent. That's close to the market, but it's not high enough to give me the confidence to back them at 1.3. The price is too short for the risk, and the evidence, while clearly favouring PSV, doesn't quite push me over the line. Sometimes the best tip is no tip at all.
Key Points:
- PSV's away record: 13W 1D 6L over 20 games, 2.25 goals per game
- ADO Den Haag: 0 wins from last 5, 1 win from last 10
- PSV xG for: 2.63 per game; ADO xG against: 2.43 per game
- Head-to-head is historical (last meeting March 2023); PSV won 16 of 20 overall
- ADO's home record (12W from 20) is decent but recent form tells a very different story
No Bet. The evidence points firmly to PSV, but the 1.3 price doesn't offer enough value for the risk, and I can't honestly rate their chances high enough to back them.
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