Preview
Right, so we've got Ljungskile SK hosting IK brage at home on 17 October, and if you want to know where the money is, the answer is buried in the home and away numbers.
Ljungskile SK's home record over their last 20 games at this ground is 12 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses. That's 60% of their home games won, and they're averaging 1.85 goals a game while conceding just 1.3. Now look at IK brage's away record over 20 games: 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. They're scoring 1.3 a game and conceding 1.75. The gap in those numbers is hard to ignore. Ljungskile SK score more, concede less, and win more at home than IK brage do away. That's the strongest case for the hosts.
The counter-argument? Well, Ljungskile SK's last five games have been a bit of a mixed bag – 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. They drew 1–1 at Orebro SK on 11 October, lost 2–3 at GIF Sundsvall on 20 September, and dropped a 0–2 at home to Falkenbergs FF on 13 September. So the home form isn't exactly sparkling right now. And the head-to-head is mostly historical – the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2–2 draw at IK brage's ground back in June. The older games from 2020 don't really tell us much about what's coming on 17 October.
IK brage, for their part, have been a bit more stable recently – 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last five. They beat Helsingborg 2–0 at home on 11 October and have drawn three times before that. Their away record is poor, but they've kept things tight, conceding just 1.2 a game in their last five. So they're not the team you'd expect to get trampled on, even if the numbers say they should be.
So you've got a home side with a strong record at this ground but a recent form that's a bit wobbly, against an away side that's been drawing a lot but has a weak away record. The head-to-head doesn't really help because it's mostly five or six years old, and the one recent meeting was a draw. It's a tight one, but the home numbers are the clearest signal.
Key Points:
- Ljungskile SK have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.85 per game and conceding 1.3
- IK brage have won just 7 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.75 per game
- Ljungskile SK's last five: 1W 2D 2L; IK brage's last five: 1W 3D 1L
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (June 2026) ended 2–2
- Both teams have been involved in goals – BTTS yes in 4 of Ljungskile SK's last 5 and 4 of IK brage's last 5
The home record numbers are the clearest signal here, and they point to Ljungskile SK. I'm going with the home win.
