Arezzo vs Benevento Prediction

Right, so we've got Arezzo hosting Benevento on 24 October in Serie B, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear storyline.

Benevento travel with the kind of away record that makes you sit up and take notice. Over their last 20 games on the road, they've won 12, drawn 3 and lost 5, racking up 1.95 points per game. They've scored 1.8 a game and conceded just 1.0, with 9 clean sheets in that stretch. That's a side that goes away and actually delivers. Their last five matches tell the same story: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 9 goals scored and only 5 conceded. They beat Hellas Verona 3–1 at home on 11 September, beat Cesena 2–0 at home on 10 October, and even managed a 2–2 draw against Vicenza Virtus at home on 17 October. The xG numbers back it up too — 1.49 per game created over their last four games with data, and just 0.70 per game faced. That's a team that creates plenty and keeps the ball out of their own net.

Add in the head-to-head and it's a one-and-done: Benevento won the only meeting between these two, a 1–0 at their own ground back in May. Not a huge sample, but it's the only one we've got, and it's within the last 12 months.

Now, Arezzo aren't without a fight. They've won their last game — a 2–1 away at Sampdoria on 18 October — and at home over 20 games they've managed 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, scoring 1.4 a game. That's a 40% win rate at home, which is respectable. But look at their last five: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, with only 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. They failed to score in 4 of their last 10 games, and their xG numbers (1.09 for, 1.11 against) suggest they're not creating or defending at the same level as Benevento. That 1–4 loss to Sudtirol at home on 20 September is a bit of a warning sign.

The counter-argument for Arezzo is simple: home form matters, and they've got a decent record at their own ground. But "decent" doesn't quite match up with Benevento's 60% away win rate and their current run of form. Arezzo's home record shows 8 wins from 20, while Benevento have won 12 of 20 on the road. The gap in goals scored per game (1.4 vs 1.8) and conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.0) both point the same way.

Key Points:

• Benevento have won 12 of their last 20 away games, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 1.0

• Arezzo's last five: 2W 1D 2L, with only 4 goals scored and 7 conceded

• The only head-to-head meeting went to Benevento, 1–0 in May

• Benevento's xG for (1.49 per game) and against (0.70 per game) both outperform Arezzo's

• Arezzo failed to score in 4 of their last 10 games

My verdict: Benevento away win at 2.47.