Arezzo vs Benevento Prediction

Now look, I love a good braai on a Saturday, but I love winning even more, and the numbers in this one are telling me where the meat is. Benevento's away record over the last 20 games is 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, 1.95 points per game, 1.8 goals scored per outing and just 1.0 conceded. That is a side that travels well and keeps the ball out of their own net. Arezzo at home, by comparison, sit on 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in 20 games, 1.5 points per game, 1.4 scored and 1.35 conceded. The gap in the away record is the single most telling number in this fixture, and it's not close.

Benevento's recent form backs it up. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Their xG against in the four games where that data exists is 0.70 per game, which tells you they are not just getting lucky — they are genuinely hard to break down. Arezzo, meanwhile, have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last five, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their xG for sits at 1.09 per game, which is respectable but not the kind of output that rattles a defence keeping clean sheets at a 9-in-20 rate on the road.

The head-to-head is thin — just one meeting, back on 9 May at Benevento's ground, which the visitors won 1-0. That is dated and limited, so I am not reading too much into it, but it does confirm that when these two meet, Benevento have had the edge. The only meeting at Arezzo's ground has yet to happen.

The counter-argument is that Arezzo at home are not a pushover. Eight wins in 20 home games is a solid base, and their home record does lean towards goals. They also came in off a 2-1 win at Sampdoria on 18 October, so there is some momentum. The friendly loss to Lazio on 27 September does not really factor in, and the 1-4 home defeat to Sudtirol on 20 September is the kind of game that happens to any side. But momentum from one win does not rewrite a 20-game away record.

When you stack the evidence — the away record, the recent form, the xG numbers, the head-to-head — the balance tips towards the visitors. The market prices Benevento at 40.49% implied, and my own read of the football puts them a touch higher, around 43%. That is a small but real edge at 2.47, and I am happy to take it.

Key Points:

• Benevento away record: 12W 3D 5L in 20 games, 1.95 ppg, 1.0 conceded per game

• Arezzo home record: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games, 1.5 ppg, 1.35 conceded per game

• Benevento last 5: 3W 1D 1L, 9 scored, 5 conceded; xG against 0.70 per game

• Arezzo last 5: 2W 1D 2L, 4 scored, 7 conceded; xG for 1.09 per game

• Only H2H meeting: Benevento 1-0 Arezzo on 9 May 2026

My pick: away win for Benevento.