Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Arsenal arrive at this fixture riding a three-game winning run, having scored six and conceded just one in that stretch. Their last 10 matches across all competitions tell the story: nine wins, one loss, and no draws. At home, the numbers are even more compelling — 14 wins from 20 games, 2.2 points per game, and a defensive record that concedes 0.7 goals per game with 12 clean sheets in that span. The xG numbers back it up: Arsenal are generating 1.73 expected goals per game while their opponents are creating just 0.46 against them.

The head-to-head in recent memory is blunt. In the last 12 months, Arsenal have won both meetings — 2–0 at home in March and 1–0 at Everton's ground in December. The older meetings (two draws and a 2–1 Arsenal win) are historical record and do not carry the same weight as those two clean recent victories.

Everton, by contrast, are in a different place. They lost 0–2 to Chelsea at home on 17 October, and their last 10 matches yield just four wins, five draws and one loss. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses, with 1.1 goals conceded per game. Their xG against stands at 1.55 per game across five recent matches, which suggests the defensive issues are not just a one-off.

The counter-argument is that Everton do win away games — eight in 20 — and their last five matches include two wins and two draws, so they are not without a pulse. Arsenal's 0–3 defeat to Brighton five weeks ago is a genuine warning that even a team in this form can be caught on a bad day. And the H2H sample of recent meetings is only two games, which is thin evidence on its own.

Key Points:

• Arsenal won 9 of their last 10 matches and are on a three-game winning run (6 scored, 1 conceded)

• Arsenal's home record: 14W 2D 4L in 20 games, 0.7 conceded per game

• Everton lost 0–2 to Chelsea on 17 October and have just 4 wins in their last 10

• Recent H2H: Arsenal won both meetings (2–0 at home, 1–0 away)

• Everton's away record: 8W 7D 5L in 20 games, 1.1 conceded per game

The numbers point one way. Arsenal's home form, their recent H2H dominance, and Everton's fragile away record all converge on the same conclusion. At 1.43, the market prices Arsenal's win at roughly 70%, but the football evidence — 9 wins in 10, a 70% home win rate, and two straight H2H wins — pushes the true probability above that figure. That's the gap I'm after.