Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Arsenal arrive at their ground on 24 October carrying the kind of momentum that makes a home fixture feel routine. Their last three matches have all ended in victory — a 1–0 away win at Nottingham Forest on 18 October, a 3–0 Champions League thrashing of Lille at home on 13 October, and a 2–1 league win over Leeds on 10 October — and across those three games they scored six and conceded just one. Over their last ten matches in all competitions, Arsenal have won nine and lost one, averaging 1.9 goals per game while keeping their own goal tally to 0.7.

At home, the numbers are even more striking. Across 20 home games from 7 February to 13 October, Arsenal have recorded 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, scoring 1.85 per game and conceding 0.7. Twelve of those 20 home games ended in a clean sheet. The head-to-head reinforces the pattern: in the two meetings within the last 12 months, Arsenal won both — 2–0 at their ground in March and 1–0 at Everton's ground in December. Everton have not taken a point from this fixture in the recent window.

Everton, by contrast, are in no position to contest that dominance. Their last five matches produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and the most recent — a 0–2 home defeat to Chelsea on 17 October — left them without a goal. Over 20 away games from 30 December 2025 to 11 October 2026, Everton have won 8, drawn 7 and lost 5, averaging 1.55 points per game and conceding 1.1 per game. Their xG figures tell a similar story: they have generated 1.23 xG per game over their last five matches with data, while Arsenal have faced just 0.46 xG per game over six recent matches.

The counter-argument is that Arsenal's 0–3 loss at Brighton on 19 September showed they are not impervious, and that Everton have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches. However, that Brighton defeat was an away game, and Everton's clean-sheet record is built on low-scoring draws and narrow wins rather than anything that suggests they can trouble Arsenal's defence. The two recent head-to-head meetings both finished 2–0 or 0–1, and Everton's away record of 8 wins in 20 does not suggest they are in a position to take points here.

Key Points:

• Arsenal won their last 3 matches (6 goals scored, 1 conceded) and 9 of their last 10 in all competitions.

• Arsenal's home record: 14W 2D 4L in 20 games, with 12 clean sheets and 0.7 goals conceded per game.

• Both recent head-to-head meetings (within 12 months) were Arsenal wins: 2–0 at home and 1–0 away.

• Everton lost 0–2 to Chelsea on 17 October and have won only 8 of their last 20 away games.

• Arsenal's xG against is 0.46 per game over 6 recent matches; Everton's xG for is 1.23 per game over 5.

The evidence points firmly to Arsenal. I rate the chance of a home win at roughly 74%, which sits comfortably above the market's 69.93% implied probability. This is the kind of fixture where the numbers line up on one side, and I am comfortable recommending the Arsenal home win at 1.43.