Preview
Athletic Club host Londrina on 13 October in Serie B, and if you want to know who the market should be backing, the venue records don't leave much room for debate. Over their last 20 home games, Athletic Club have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7, scoring 1.15 per game and conceding 1.1. Londrina, over their last 20 away games, have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 11, scoring 0.95 per game and conceding 1.4. That's a gap that doesn't need a lot of fancy maths to read — the hosts are the stronger side in this specific context, and the market seems to know it only a little.
The head-to-head is mostly dated. Three of the four meetings between these sides come from 2024 in Serie C, and Athletic Club won all three — 2–1, 2–1 and 3–2. The one recent meeting, back in June at Londrina's ground, ended 2–0 to the hosts. So the H2H doesn't give us a clean current-form picture, and I'd lean on the home/away records and recent results instead.
The problem for the hosts is that their last two games have been losses — 1–2 at Goias on 6 October and 1–2 at home to Sport Recife on 1 October. They've scored just 2 and conceded 4 in those two. But look at Londrina: they've lost their last four, scoring 2 and conceding 8. A 6–0 win over Ponte Preta on 15 September is the only bright spot, and since then it's been 0–2 at home to Criciuma (with a late red card), 0–2 at Vila Nova, and 1–2 at home to Fortaleza. This is a team that is clearly struggling on the road, and the numbers back that up — 11 losses in 20 away games is not a record you build confidence around.
The market has Athletic Club at 2.2, which implies a 45.45% chance. My read, based on the home record against the away record and the relative form, is that the hosts are closer to 53% to take this one. That's a meaningful gap, and it's where the value lives. The bookies are pricing this as a fairly even contest, but the numbers say otherwise. You don't need to be a genius to see that a team that wins 35% of home games is a better bet than a team that loses 55% of away games.
The counter-argument is real: Athletic Club's recent form is poor, and the one recent H2H meeting went to Londrina. Both teams are in a slump. But a slump against a team that's lost 4 of their last 5 games is a different proposition than a slump against a team that's competitive on the road. And the 6–0 win, while encouraging for Londrina, came against Ponte Preta and hasn't been followed up.
Key Points:
- Athletic Club's home record (7W 6D 7L in 20 games) is significantly stronger than Londrina's away record (4W 5D 11L in 20 games)
- Londrina have lost their last 4 games, scoring just 2 and conceding 8
- The head-to-head is mostly historical (3 of 4 meetings from 2024), so current form and venue records carry more weight
- Athletic Club's last 2 games were losses, but both sides are in poor shape
- The market's 45.45% implied probability for the home win underprices the hosts given the venue records
Verdict: Athletic Club home win at 2.2.
