Preview
Look, I'll be straight with you - this one's got a shape to it if you actually look at the right numbers. Bahia at home over their last 20 games have won 10, drawn 7 and lost just 3, scoring 1.8 a game and conceding 1.2. That's a side that comes to work at their own ground, no doubt about it. Now flip that to Mirassol on the road: 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in 20 away games, scoring 0.9 a game and picking up 9 of those 20 without finding the net at all. That's a 1.8-to-0.9 scoring gap and a 1.2-to-1.3 conceded gap, and it's not even close. You don't need a crystal ball for this one, bra.
Bahia's last five have been 4 wins and 1 loss - they beat Remo 2-1 at home on 14 September, took RB Bragantino apart 3-2 away on 5 September, and before that they were 3-2 at home against Internacional and 2-0 at Vitoria. The only blemish is the 1-2 loss at Atletico Paranaense on 20 September, but that's one game and it was on the road. Mirassol's last five look tidy in the numbers - 3 wins and 2 draws, no losses - but that 4-0 at Uberlandia on 27 September was a friendly, and the 1-1 at RB Bragantino on 7 October came with a Mirassol red card in the 28th minute. Strip the friendly and the red-card game and the away form isn't as pretty as it looks.
The head-to-head is thin - just one meeting in the last 12 months, back in April when Bahia won 2-1 at Mirassol's ground. The older games (a 5-1 Mirassol win in August 2025 and a 1-1 at Bahia in April 2025) are historical and I won't build a case on them. What I will say is that in all three meetings, both teams have scored, and two of the three went over 2.5 goals.
Now the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool: Mirassol have not lost in their last five, and they've scored 11 goals in that span. They beat Botafogo 2-0 at home on 19 September and took Coritiba 2-1 on the road on 6 September. Their xG numbers from the three games with data show 0.71 per game for and 1.71 against, which is a bit concerning for their defence, but there are only three games with data. And Bahia's xG against is 1.08 per game over six games, so they're not keeping it tight either. The draw at 4.1 is a live possibility if Mirassol park the bus and Bahia can't find the second gear.
Key Points:
- Bahia's home record: 10W 7D 3L in 20 games, 1.8 scored per game, 1.2 conceded per game
- Mirassol's away record: 4W 5D 11L in 20 games, 0.9 scored per game, 9/20 failed to score
- Bahia won the only recent head-to-head meeting (2-1 at Mirassol, April 2026)
- Mirassol's 4-0 win at Uberlandia was a friendly; their last competitive away game was a 1-1 draw at Bragantino with a red card
- Bahia's last five: 4W 1L, 11 goals scored, 7 conceded
My pick: Bahia home win at 1.7.
Match time