Preview
The numbers don't lie, and in this one they're pointing in a very specific direction. Bahia at home have scored in 19 of their last 20 league games, and in 16 of those 20, both teams found the net. That's an 80% BTTS rate at their ground, and it's the single most telling figure in this fixture.
Add in the head-to-head and the picture sharpens. In all three meetings between these two sides — spanning from April 2025 to April 2026 — both teams have scored. Three for three. The most recent of those, back in April at Mirassol's ground, ended 1–2 to Bahia, but the pattern is consistent: this fixture produces goals on both ends. The older meetings are historical record, but the recent meeting and the overall pattern hold up.
Bahia's recent form backs it up. Over their last five matches, both teams have scored in four of five. They've racked up 11 goals in that span, averaging 2.2 per game. Yes, they dropped their last one at Atletico Paranaense on 20 September, but before that they were winning four in a row, including a 3–2 home win over Internacional and a 3–2 away win at RB Bragantino. The scoring is there, and it's not just one trick.
Mirassol, for their part, are in no slump. Three wins and two draws in their last five, with 11 goals scored and just 4 conceded. They beat Botafogo 2–0 at home on 19 September and picked up a 4–0 win at Uberlandia on 27 September. Their last outing, a 1–1 draw at RB Bragantino on 7 October, saw them score despite a red card in the 28th minute. They're scoring, and they're scoring consistently.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be honest about it. Mirassol's away record over 20 games is the one thing that gives me pause. They've failed to score in 9 of those 20 away fixtures, and their BTTS rate on the road is 50% — 10 yes, 10 no. Their away scoring average is 0.9 per game, the lowest figure in the matchup table. If Mirassol are in one of those quiet away spells, the BTTS yes falls away, and I'd be wrong.
But here's the thing: the head-to-head says no. Three meetings, three times both teams scored. And Bahia's home record of 19 out of 20 scoring is almost impossible to ignore. The matchup table puts Bahia's home scoring at 1.8 per game against Mirassol's away scoring of 0.9, but that 0.9 is an average over 20 games. Mirassol's last five games show 2.2 per game. The recent form is telling a different story from the long away record, and I weight the recent form more heavily.
The market prices both teams to score at 1.7, implying a 58.82% chance. My read, weighing the H2H, Bahia's home scoring record, and both sides' recent form, puts the true probability a touch higher — around 62%. That's a small but real edge, and it's the kind of number I like to work with. The bookies have it slightly underpriced, and that's where the value lives.
Key Points:
- Bahia have scored in 19 of 20 home games; BTTS yes in 16 of 20
- All three head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score
- Mirassol's last five games: 3W 2D 0L, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Mirassol's away record: failed to score in 9 of 20, BTTS yes in 10 of 20
- Bahia's last five: 4W 1L, 11 goals scored, BTTS yes in 4 of 5
Verdict: Both teams to score.
Match time