Preview
Right, so we've got Bahia hosting Mirassol at home on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Bahia have been in proper form. Four wins from their last five, and the only blemish was that 1–2 slip at Atletico Paranaense three weeks ago. Before that, they were winning 3–2 at Bragantino, 3–2 against Internacional at home, and 2–0 at Vitoria. They're scoring 2.2 a game and only conceding 1.4. At home specifically, over 20 games, they've won 10, drawn 7 and lost just 3, scoring 1.8 a game. That's a solid record, and they've failed to score in only one of those 20 home games.
Now Mirassol have been decent recently — three wins and two draws from their last five, no defeats. But here's the thing: one of those wins was a 4–0 friendly at Uberlandia, and their last outing was a 1–1 draw at Bragantino where they got a man sent off in the 28th minute. Strip that friendly out and their competitive form is a bit more mixed. More importantly, their away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. That's 0.85 points a game and 0.9 goals scored. They've failed to score in 9 of those 20 away games. That's a problem when you're travelling to Bahia's ground.
The head-to-head is thin — only one meeting in the last 12 months, back in April at Mirassol's ground, and Bahia won 2–1 on the road. The older meetings are historical, so I won't lean on them. But that one recent result tells you Bahia can handle this fixture.
The counter-argument? Mirassol have kept things tight recently — only 4 conceded in 5 games, 2 clean sheets. And Bahia's last game was a loss, so they're not on a winning streak. But one bad result doesn't erase a 10-win home record, and Mirassol's away numbers don't back up the idea they're a threat here.
Key Points:
- Bahia have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 a game
- Bahia's home record: 10W 7D 3L in 20 games, 1.8 scored per game
- Mirassol's away record: 4W 5D 11L in 20 games, 0.9 scored per game
- Only one recent H2H meeting: Bahia won 2–1 away at Mirassol in April
- Mirassol's last competitive outing was a 1–1 draw with a red card
The market has Bahia at 1.7 to win, which prices them at 58.82%. My read is they're a bit better than that — I'd put them around 64% to take this one. The home record, the form, and Mirassol's struggles on the road all point the same way.
Verdict: Bahia home win at 1.7.
Match time