Preview
Right, so we've got Benfica B hosting Chaves at the end of October in the Segunda Liga, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it. Let's cut through the noise.
Benfica B at home are a different animal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 10, drawn 6 and lost 4, scoring 1.35 a game and conceding just 0.8. That's a solid record, and the defence is the real story — they've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 home fixtures. In their last 10 games across all grounds, they've conceded 0.5 a game and kept 6 clean sheets. That's a team that shuts the door when it needs to.
Now look at Chaves on the road. Their last 20 away games read 7 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses. Twelve losses. That's a lot of defeats for a team trying to keep their heads above water. They score 1.2 a game away but concede 1.65, and they've only managed 4 clean sheets in 20 trips. Their defence on the road is leaking like an old tap in a pub lavatory.
The head-to-head at this venue is simple: 9 months ago, Benfica B beat Chaves 1–0 here. That's the only recent meeting at this ground. The older meetings go back a few years, but the recent one tells you what to expect — a tight, low-scoring affair that the hosts edge.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Chaves are on a two-game winning run, scoring 4 and conceding 2 in those two. They beat Vizela 2–1 and Os Marialvas 2–1 at home, and they've drawn 1–1 away to Lusitânia Lourosa. They're not dead. And Benfica B's last five isn't pretty — two losses (0–2 to Torreense at home and 0–1 to Amarante away) and a 0–0 draw at Feirense. They're not flying. But the home record over 20 games is the bigger picture, and that's where the money is.
The market has Benfica B at 2.39, which prices them at about 42%. I'd put them a bit higher than that. The defensive gap between a team conceding 0.5 a game and one conceding 1.65 away is the kind of thing that decides these low-league fixtures. Chaves have lost 12 of their last 20 on the road, and they're walking into a side that's kept 10 clean sheets at home in 20 games. I rate Benfica B's chances at around 53%, which is a decent chunk above the bookies' number.
Key Points:
- Benfica B's home record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, with 10 clean sheets and 0.8 conceded per game
- Chaves' away record: 7W 1D 12L in 20 games, conceding 1.65 per game
- Recent head-to-head at this venue: Benfica B won 1–0 in January 2026
- Chaves are on a 2-game winning run but their away form over 20 games is poor
- Benfica B's last 5 includes two losses, but the 20-game home record is the real yardstick
My pick: Benfica B home win at 2.39.
