Benfica B vs Chaves Prediction

The numbers at this venue don't leave much room for debate. Benfica B have won 10 of their last 20 home games, drawing 6 and losing 4, for 1.8 points per game. Their defence at home is the standout figure: they have conceded just 0.8 goals per game and kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 matches. Chaves, by contrast, have won only 7 of their last 20 away games, drawing 1 and losing 12, for 1.1 points per game. Their away defence has conceded 1.65 goals per game and kept just 4 clean sheets in 20 trips.

The head-to-head at this ground adds a small but telling note. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 17 January 2026, when Benfica B edged Chaves 1–0 at home. The older meeting at this venue is historical record only, but it too ended in a Benfica B win. With the head-to-head so limited in recent memory, the current form and venue records carry the weight.

Benfica B's recent form is not without wobbles. Their last five games produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, and they failed to score in three of those five. The 0–2 home defeat to Torreense on 5 September and the 0–1 loss at Amarante on 30 August are the blemishes. But over their last 10 games across all venues, Benfica B have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2, conceding just 0.5 goals per game and keeping 6 clean sheets. That defensive solidity is the foundation here.

The counter-argument is Chaves' recent momentum. They have won their last two games — 2–1 against Vizela and 2–1 against Os Marialvas in the Taça de Portugal — and their last five matches have produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Four of those five games saw both teams score, and four went over 2.5 goals. However, two of those three wins came at Chaves's own ground, and their away record over 20 games (7W 1D 12L) remains the more telling figure. Their away defence, conceding 1.65 per game, is the vulnerability Benfica B can exploit.

Key Points:

• Benfica B's home record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, 1.8 ppg, 0.8 conceded per game

• Chaves' away record: 7W 1D 12L in 20 games, 1.1 ppg, 1.65 conceded per game

• Benfica B's home clean sheet rate: 10 in 20; Chaves' away clean sheet rate: 4 in 20

• Chaves' recent form is strong (3W 1D 1L) but two of three wins came at home

• The only recent H2H meeting at this venue ended 1–0 to Benfica B

The market prices Benfica B's win at 2.39, implying a 41.84% chance. My reading of the home and away records, the defensive disparity, and the head-to-head puts Benfica B's win probability meaningfully above that figure. The price is where the value sits.

Benfica B home win at 2.39.