Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Birmingham hosting QPR on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Birmingham have been in proper form. They've won their last two — a 4–0 hammering of Preston at home on 13 October and a 1–0 away win at West Brom on 10 October — and in those two games they've scored five and conceded nothing. Go back a bit further and it's three wins from their last five, with the only blemish being a 1–2 loss at Norwich on 9 September. At home, over 20 games, they've won 8, drawn 9 and lost 3, scoring 1.65 a game and conceding 1.4. They've only failed to score in 2 of those 20 home games, and their xG for over the last six games with data is averaging 1.96 per game. That's a side that's creating plenty and converting it.
Now look at QPR. Four draws from their last five. That's it. No wins. They've drawn 1–1 at West Ham, 2–2 at home to Preston, 1–1 at West Brom, and 0–0 at Charlton, with the only loss being 0–1 to Middlesbrough on 5 September. Their current run is four draws, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Away from home over 20 games, they've won 7, drawn 9 and lost 4, scoring 1.4 a game. But here's the thing — they've failed to score in 9 of those 20 away games. That's a real problem when you're going to a ground where Birmingham have only gone blank twice in 20.
The head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months tells a simple story: Birmingham won 1–0 on 11 March. QPR did get a win at their own end on 9 December (2–1), but the recent meeting here went to the hosts. The older meetings go back years and don't really tell you much about where these teams are now.
The xG numbers back it up too. Birmingham are averaging 1.96 xG for over their last six games with data, while QPR are averaging just 0.95 xG against. That's a big gap in the quality of chances being faced.
Now, the counter-argument. QPR's defensive record away is actually not bad — 1.1 conceded per game over 20 away games, with 6 clean sheets. They've kept it tight in those recent draws, and a 0–0 or 1–1 at Birmingham's ground is a very real possibility. Birmingham have drawn 9 of their 20 home games, so they're not a team that always gets it done. And QPR's xG against of 0.95 per game suggests they're not being overwhelmed. A draw at 3.6 is a live option if the Blues get it wrong.
But the weight of evidence points one way. Birmingham are in form, at home, and the opposition haven't won in five. QPR's inability to score away (9 blanks in 20) is a genuine concern when you're facing a side that's scored 1.65 a game at home. The market has Birmingham as the likeliest outcome, but I'd put their chances a touch higher given the form gap and the home record.
Key Points:
- Birmingham won their last two games, scoring 5 and conceding 0
- QPR have drawn their last four and haven't won in five
- Birmingham's home record: 8W 9D 3L over 20 games, scoring 1.65 per game
- QPR have failed to score in 9 of their last 20 away games
- The recent head-to-head at this ground was a 1–0 Birmingham win
My pick: Birmingham home win at 2.02.
