Preview
Right, folks, The Big O is back and I'm itching for goals. Birmingham host QPR on 17 October in the Championship, and this one has the smell of a proper end-to-end affair.
Let's start with the home side. Birmingham have been tearing into games lately. They smashed Preston 4–0 at home just four days ago, then picked up a 1–0 win at West Brom's ground before that. Their current run is two wins in a row with five goals scored and zero conceded. Over their last 10 games, they've scored 18 and failed to score in none of them. That's a team that's found its rhythm, and it's showing up at home, where 15 of their last 20 games have seen both teams find the net.
Now, QPR on the road. Their last five games have been a string of draws — 1–1 at West Ham, 2–2 at home to Preston, 1–1 at West Brom, and a 0–0 at Charlton — before a 0–1 loss to Middlesbrough. Four draws in a row, four goals scored, four conceded. It's been a low-scoring, low-energy stretch. But here's the thing: over 20 away games, QPR have been involved in both-teams-to-score outcomes in 10 of them, and their xG against sits at 0.95 per game across their last six matches with data. They're not a team that shuts the door completely.
The head-to-head is short on recent meetings — just two within the last 12 months. Birmingham won 1–0 at home in March, and QPR won 2–1 at their own ground in December. The older meetings reach back three years and are historical record only, so I'm leaning on the current form and the home/away splits.
The xG numbers tell a story I love. Birmingham are averaging 1.96 xG for per game over their last six matches with data, and QPR are averaging 1.63. Both teams are creating chances. And both are conceding them — Birmingham's xG against is 1.24, QPR's is 0.95. That's a recipe for goals on both ends.
The counter-argument? QPR's last five games have been a goal drought on the road — 1–1, 1–1, 0–0 — and they've failed to score in two of those. Their away record over 20 games shows 9 games where they didn't score. That's a real concern for a both-teams-to-score pick. And the recent head-to-head at this venue in March was a 1–0, which is the opposite of what I'm calling.
But Birmingham's home record is hard to ignore. 15 out of 20 home games have seen both teams score. Their last 10 games across all venues have been 8 out of 10 BTTS yes. And they haven't failed to score in any of their last 10. QPR's away record, while lower, still shows 10 out of 20 with both teams finding the net. The xG data confirms both sides are creating and conceding chances.
Key Points:
- Birmingham have scored in all of their last 10 games, and 15 of their last 20 home games have seen both teams score
- QPR's last five games have been low-scoring, but their away record over 20 games includes 10 BTTS yes
- Both teams' xG for averages sit above 1.5 per game, and both are conceding chances (xG against 1.24 and 0.95)
- The recent head-to-head at this venue was a 1–0 Birmingham win, but older meetings are historical only
- QPR's four-draw run has kept scorelines low, but the underlying chance creation points to goals on both ends
The Big O's verdict: Both teams to score, at 1.73.
