Preview
The force is strong with Wrexham, and it shows in the numbers, young one. Over their last 20 away games, Wrexham have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6, averaging 1.5 points per game. Blackburn, at home over 20 games, have managed 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses at 1.25 points per game. The away side brings more fire to this fixture, and the numbers do not lie.
Blackburn's last five matches tell a mixed story: three wins, one draw and a loss, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. They beat Cardiff 2-1 at home on 10 October and Millwall 3-1 on 12 September, but the 2-3 defeat at West Brom on 17 October left them with a one-game losing run. Wrexham, meanwhile, came back from a 0-6 thrashing at West Ham on 11 September to win 4-1 against Preston on 17 October and 2-1 against Southampton on 19 September. Their last five: two wins, one draw, two losses, 8 scored, 11 conceded. The 4-1 victory on 17 October was a statement, and their current run is a win.
The head-to-head at this ground is telling. In January 2026, Wrexham came to Blackburn's ground and won 2-0. That is the only recent meeting at this venue within the last 12 months. The other recent meeting, at Wrexham's ground on 29 November 2025, ended 1-1. The older 4-1 Blackburn win in the 2024 FA Cup is historical record, not current form. Do not confuse the past with the present, I tell you.
The xG numbers add weight to Wrexham's case. Across their recent games with xG data, Wrexham average 1.24 goals per game for and 0.81 against. Blackburn average 0.94 for and 1.95 against. Wrexham are creating more and conceding less on a per-game basis. The force flows through them.
Now, the counter-argument, for balance. Blackburn at home concede 1.05 per game over 20 games, which is better than Wrexham's 1.3 away. They have kept clean sheets in 5 of those 20 home games. Blackburn also failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 games across all venues. The 2-1 and 3-1 home wins show they can be dangerous on their own turf. And the market prices this as a tight contest, with Wrexham at 37.04% and Blackburn at 36.10%. A narrow gap, indeed. But narrow gaps can be crossed by the stronger side.
Key Points:
- Wrexham's away record (8W 6D 6L, 1.5 ppg) outperforms Blackburn's home record (6W 7D 7L, 1.25 ppg)
- Wrexham won 2-0 at Blackburn's ground on 1 January 2026, the only recent meeting at this venue
- Wrexham's xG for (1.24 per game) exceeds Blackburn's (0.94), while their xG against (0.81) is well below Blackburn's (1.95)
- Blackburn lost 2-3 at West Brom on 17 October, their only defeat in the last five
- Both teams have been over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches
The wise choice, I tell you, is to back the away win. Wrexham's numbers, their head-to-head at this ground and their xG profile all point the same direction. The force is with them.
